000
FXUS63 KDVN 151928
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
228 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE PRODUCING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND DEBRIS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK COOL FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NOWCAST TOOLS SUGGEST
NEW CONVECTION TO FIRE BETWEEN 20-23Z THAT IS POORLY HANDLED BY
ALL SOLUTIONS. LIKELY MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH
COVERAGE 30-70 PERCENT OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS. TRENDS
SUPPORT DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH VERY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY AND TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TONIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH EVENING TO HAVE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTING NEAR SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE
TIL MID EVENING. MAIN THREAT TO BE HAIL TO NEAR 1 INCH AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 UP TO ISOLATED NEAR 60 MPH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLIDE
TO SE OF AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...IF NOT EARLIER. LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IF
SKIES CLEAR EARLY ENOUGH FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY...OVERALL TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS...NEAR NORMAL OF 82-86F WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. KEPT VERY
LOW POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE
IF BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK VORT MAX WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE IS
A MORE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS
THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 60.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER...MID RANGE MODELS INDICATE
DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION. ALSO BY TUESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE MOVED THE QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN MID 50S NORTH AND AROUND 60 SOUTH. BY THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 80S.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS AS MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TERMINALS EXCEPT IN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT 12 HOURS AND RISK OF PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 16/09Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 4K
AGL WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TO 2-3K AGL IN STRONGEST STORMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1-3 MILES. CONVECTION
SHOULD SLIDE EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED TO 2-5 MILES. ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY
16/14Z WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS BY SUNDAY AM BEHIND
WEAK COOL FRONT.

NICHOLS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...NICHOLS