Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 270828
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GRT LKS HIGH PRESSURE AS OPPOSED TO
TIGHTENING RETURN FLOW ACRS THE PLAINS. OF COURSE THE MAIN WX
FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE BLOCKED UPPER LOW SEEN ON CURRENT WATER
VAPOR LOOP SPIRALING ALMOST IN PLACE ACRS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA.
A FEW ISOLATED STORM CLUSTERS MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT UNDER THIS
FEATURE...AND AS THEY ROTATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD SHOULD STAY MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WHIRLING UP
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UP ACRS IL AND INTO WI....WHICH MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING FILTERING THE INSOLATION SOME ACRS
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

TODAY...LARGE BLOCKING PATTERN ACRS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TO
KEEP THE UPPER LOW GENERALLY GYRATING IN PLACE ACRS WESTERN IA TO
THE MO RVR VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THIS PLACEMENT IN
MIND...AGAIN WILL BANK ON MOST OF THE PRECIP CLUSTER GENERATED BY
THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TODAY
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WRAPPING UP ON IT/S EASTERN FLANK AND ACRS THE LOCAL FCST
AREA...BUT FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A SIMILAR
AIRMASS ACRS THE REGION AS YESTERDAY...THUS WILL PLAY PERSISTENCE AND
GO WITH SIMILAR HIGHS. MAY ADD A DEGREE HERE AND THERE TO BLEND
BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER
WITH THE DIURNAL WARM UP THE PAST FEW DAYS. MOST AREAS TO RANGE FROM
79 TO 84 DEGREES TODAY.

TONIGHT...BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW TO START
TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT STARTS TO SLOWLY GET DRAGGED EASTWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL IA/MN BORDER REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE MAY START TO THIN FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC SOME VALLEY FOG
OR EVEN PATCHY LOW LYING AREAS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWESTERN IL CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. BUT THESE AREAS MAY STILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AS OPPOSED TO AREAS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH. WILL STILL AT LEAST ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA FOR THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. LOW TEMPS AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 50S.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...RESULTING FROM THE FLATTENING
UPPER RIDGE AND ADVANCING WEST COAST TROUGH...WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MORE TYPICAL EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. UNTIL THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE AND BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND 00Z MOS GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE  A
BIT COOLER AS THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INSOLATION. DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LONGER
FALL NIGHTS SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE GREATEST CHANCES ARE CENTERED ON
THURSDAY...WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY
FOR THESE PERIODS BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. BEFORE THEN...THERE IS BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE ADVERTISED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHERE MODELS
ARE LIKELY OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN PRECEDING THE SYSTEM.
LIKEWISE...POPS MAY BE CARRIED TOO LONG AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED
AND THU...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO ONLY THE
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR PERIODS OF MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






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