Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 022000
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AS OF 2 PM CDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. SEASONALLY COOL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUED OVER E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VERY
COMFORTABLE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAD LESS OF A DISTINCT WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME SIGNAL OVER
IOWA/ILLINOIS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. LIKE YESTERDAY...MID-
LEVEL CIRRUS WERE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BROAD 850MB HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES/E IOWA/N ILLINOIS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. RIBBON OF
ELEVATED 1000-500MB COLUMN AVG RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER W IOWA AND
E NEBRASKA DOWN INTO NW MISSOURI IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
SOUTHWARD...KEEPING ANY RAIN/STORM CHANCES WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN...IN THE 50S...AND THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY SUNNY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 F WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM REMAINS CONSISTENTLY DRY WITH THE SAME
REGIME OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH CONFIDENCE DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH VERY SLOW MODERATION TO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GFS PWAT FORECASTS REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...AND THAT ALONE IS REMARKABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN ANY CASE...GOOD THINGS DO COME TO AN END...BY MONDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY THEN...ALLOWING THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS.
BY MONDAY...THIS LOW WILL SPREAD EAST AND WEAKEN...BUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ROUGHLY 36 HOURS OF RETURN FLOW BEFORE WE GET INTO FORCING FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...CAPE AND
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH. GFS
MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT SHOWS PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES IN ITS
FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...A SLOW MOVING FROPA WITH FORCING CENTERED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS LIKELY. FOR THIS
REASON...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO SUPPORT THE WIDESPREAD
THREAT.

LOOKING BEYOND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LOW PASSING OVER
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE WAVE COULD BRUSH THE CWA WITH RAINS...BUT IS MORE LIKELY
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS SLIGHT POPS ARE AS HIGH AS WE ARE
GOING AT THIS POINT.  THE ECMWF AND GFS STRONGLY DIVERGE AFTER THIS
POINT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
LESS AMPLIFICATION WITH A FLAT WESTERN RIDGE...RESULTING IN A
TYPICAL MCS PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST...ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EASTERLY SFC FLOW ON SOUTHERN SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE W GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME MODELS INDICATE LOWER LEVEL
STRATOCU FORMING TONIGHT WITH A PUSH OF MOISTURE AT 925MB. IF
CLOUDS DEVELOP...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BECOME VERY THICK SO ONLY
HAVE SCT025 IN THE TAFS.

CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE
DAY. ALSO...AN ELEVATED AND BROAD WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME IS STILL
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MOST OF THE MIDWEST.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH



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