Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 192034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACRS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RVR VALLEY. STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SFC LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SFC
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SFC WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FCST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SFC TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A LONGWAVE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S. UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOCATIONS. ON
THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MOVE
NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE
THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR TAF CYCLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...JUST PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING AGAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DRY LLVL FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL VEER BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS TO THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO PREVENT SHALLOW OR
GROUND FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL KEEP VSBYS
ABOVE 6SM.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...12






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