Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 191201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN IL WITH CALM WINDS CLOSER TO
THE HIGH WHILE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WERE FOUND IN EASTERN IA. THERE
WAS ALSO PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. 3 AM TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HEADLINES...FROST ADVISORY IN WESTERN IL WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

TODAY...WARMER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BUT THE LOW LEVELS
ARE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.
BESIDES...THE BETTER FORCING IS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA AND I WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
IS LESS THAN EXPECTED THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOMEWHAT.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IT WILL SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BUT THIS IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THAN ANYTHING
ELSE. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST THEMES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

ON MONDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A
BRISK NORTHWEST BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A MIXED LAYER TO 850MB AND HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTH...MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIERS OF
COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HEAD EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 19/00Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BOTH INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED
BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
TO SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     WARREN.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...HAASE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.