Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 241957
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
257 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Cold front extended from eastern Jo Daviess county to Kirksville,
MO and continued to move eastward. A line of scattered
thunderstorms extended from southeast WI to near Rochelle, IL
where the cap was weaker and low level convergence was a bit
better. SBCAPES were 7000 J/KG in IL so a severe storm is possible
if it can break through the cap.

Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 80s behind the
front to the lower 90s ahead of the front. Dewpoints were gradually
dropping off into the 60s in the wake of the front, but were in
the upper 70s to lower 80s ahead of the front. Heat index values
ranged from 100 to 110 in the warm sector ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Heat headline: will let the headlines expire at 7 pm when we
finally break the heat wave that has been over our area for the
past several days.

Tonight: Will monitor radar trends but with each passing hour the
chances of storms become less and less. There was still enough of
a cap, along with weak surface convergence and weak shear
suppressing convection. The better opportunity looks to be in
northeast IL/southeast WI. However, there is still the possibility
of a few storms in our far eastern cwa until about 5 pm and then
the front will have pushed east of the cwa. In the meantime, a few
showers/isolated storms may graze out far south with a weak wave
moving through that area. With the passage of the cold front
humidity levels will gradually lower to more tolerable levels,
along with cooler temperatures. Minimum temperatures will be
mainly in the 60s.

Monday: Weak high pressure will bring a much more comfortable day
with lower humidity and cooler temperatures (compared to the past
several days). There should be plenty of sunshine with afternoon
highs in the 80s, which is closer to normal for late July.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Monday night and Tuesday...The GSF/ECMWF models are in good
agreement that a northwest flow aloft along with surface high
pressure will produce mainly clear skies and near normal July
temperatures over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Humidity levels will
be more comfortable than what we had during the recent heat wave.
Monday night low temperatures will be in the mid 60s. These
temperatures combined with low level moisture from past rain, mature
crops, clear skies and light winds may lead to fog development
Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...Northwest flow aloft will continue over the
midwest in response to an upper level longwave ridge building over
the southwestern United States. Mid range forecast models prog that
the first in a series of upper level shortwaves will move across the
region bringing with it a good the chance of thunderstorms. High
temperatures will range in the mid 80s both days with lows in the
60s.

Friday through next Sunday...Forecast confidence is low during this
time period. Long range consensus models show agreement in the
overall synpotic pattern but vary in the timing and location of
smaller shortwaves moving through the northwest flow aloft.
Therefore model blend solutions indicate a chance of showers each
day. High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

MVFR conds at KCID/KDBQ behind a cold front that at 18z extended
from just east of KDBQ to KOTM and was moving eastward. By late
afternoon conds should become VFR at all taf sites, continuing
through Monday. Any convection that forms ahead of the front
should develop across northern IL. Southwest winds becoming
northwest to north with the frontal passage, with speeds of around
10 knots or less.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clinton-Jackson.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van
     Buren-Washington.

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Carroll-Jo Daviess-
     Stephenson.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bureau-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock
     Island-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Kuhl
AVIATION...Haase



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