Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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207
FXUS63 KDVN 051727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1227 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
A QUIET REGIME AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY...A SPLENDID SPRING DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS POSSIBLE
MID DAY.

TONIGHT...FAIR WITH MANY AREA LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS FRIDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER BUT IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OUT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
ON...

THE MODELS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE FIRST SLOW MOVING PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
AND THE SECOND PIECE APPROACHES. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE NO SUCH
BREAK AND HAVE THE SECOND PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING JUST AS THE FIRST
PART EXITS. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE



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