Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS63 KDVN 290448
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

SPC has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for the entire DVN
forecast area into this evening. A NNW to SSE broken line of
storms is ongoing and will continue to move to the NNE at 30-40
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Through this evening: scattered showers and thunderstorms will
affect a large portion of E Iowa/W Illinois. A few storms may
become strong to severe.

Thunderstorm Timing: Storms should occur through the late
afternoon and early evening, exiting the NE forecast area by 6-7
PM CDT.

Thunderstorm Risks: Environmental parameters of 35 kt effective
shear, 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE, 900 J/kg DCAPE, and dry mid-levels
with a wet-bulb zero height of 9000 ft are supportive of isolated
wind gusts near 60 mph and hail up near quarter size with the
strongest storms. Additionally, an isolated tornado is possible.
Low-level shear is 10-15 kts (0-1 km) and 0-1 km SRH is close to
100 m2/s2. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Tonight...Showers and storms diminish early. Lows will be in the
60s and surface winds will be light.

Sunday and Sunday Night...Dry and warm for the majority of E Iowa/W
Illinois. Slight chance for an isolated shower or storm across
the northern third of the forecast area. Highs are forecast in the
80-85 F range. The slight shower chances also exist for the
overnight period for most of the CWA but coverage and probability
are very low.

Monday through Wednesday...Models have an active pattern
developing - especially by Tuesday and Wednesday - as a mid-level
shortwave/vorticity max slowly moves through the Central Plains. A
moist atmosphere will surge northward causing PWATS to spike to
1.50-1.75 inches. Weak mid-level winds would yield low deep layer
shear. Therefore, overall severe weather threat is low with
localized heavy rainfall becoming the most likely concern.

The best chances for widespread rain are Tuesday Night and
Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

Thursday through Saturday...High pressure builds into the Midwest
resulting in a much drier forecast, lower humidity, and cooler
temps in the lower to upper 70s. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Surface winds from the southwest will gradually shift to the west
then northwest overnight. There is a low chance for MVFR
visibilities at DBQ around sunrise, but otherwise mainly VFR
conditions will prevail at area TAF sites through the TAF period.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...DMD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.