Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS63 KDVN 261114
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING TOWARD SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST OVER THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

BY 7 AM...THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AFFECTED COLD WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH TO REACH HIGHWAY 30.  BY MID
MORNING...THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO CEDAR RAPIDS AND THE QUAD
CITIES. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...BY MID MORNING...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE MIXED WITH MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEATING THAT MAY HALT THE STRATUS FROM GOING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS CREATES A DAY WHERE THE SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE THE NORTH STRUGGLES THROUGH TO HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRATUS CAN STAY
OPAQUE THROUGH THE DAY...THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

DESPITE THE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES TODAY...IS SHOULD BE DRY DAY
FOR NEARLY OFF THE CWA...AS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MISSOURI ACTIVITY...WHICH
SHOWS A MORE LIKELY CHANCE TO DROP SOUTHEAST...MISSING OUR CWA ALL
TOGETHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY...DESPITE THE WARM
FRONT NEAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF EASTERN IOWA FOR QUITE A WHILE BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
CONTINUE AS STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS USHER IN LOW DEWPOINTS.
THUS...ANY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER
THROUGH WETBULB AFFECTS.  THIS WILL CREATE A COLD MARCH LIKE
NIGHT...WITH RAIN ARRIVING IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED AS CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
FARTHER SOUTHWEST STRATIFIES INTO A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF RAIN TONIGHT...RESULTS IN A NEARLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF DUBUQUE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA
AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. STRONG FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH A NICE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE SOUTH LIFTING OVER THE
COOL AIRMASS IN THE CWA...DUE TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMING OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STALLED IN FAR
NORTHERN MO. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RANGE...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH PWAT`S OVER 1.30 INCHES.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN MO AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
SCATTERED AND LIGHT. THE OCCLUDED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE DVN CWA ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL
FEEL LIKE A RAW DAY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AN EAST WIND GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TIME TO BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE MID WEEK EVENT IF NOT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
AT LEAST 1/2 TO 1 INCH. IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IL AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEAR THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS TAKES THE
LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A CHALLENGING AVIATION DAY AND NIGHT ARE IN STORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS AROUND 800 TO 1500 FT SPREAD
SOUTHWEST OUT OF WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...LIKELY REACHING BOTH CID
AND MLI BEFORE STALLING OUT NORTH OF BRL. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY...TURNING ALL WINDS IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KTS. AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS DECK SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.