Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 062016
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE
RANGE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUD COVER HELPED
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE MID
80S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 DURING THE AFTERNOON...AFTER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS REFLECT A FASTER PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND HAVE MADE SOME CORRESPONDING ADJUSTMENTS IN EVOLUTION
OF POPS AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS. 0.75 TO 1 INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS IMPACTED
BY STRONG AND/OR MULTIPLE STORMS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN
TRIMMED TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AREAS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOSTLY DRY TO THIS POINT. NOT EXCITED ABOVE THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WILL LIKELY BE MONITORING A FEW STORMS FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 PICKED UP 1 TO 2
INCHES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THE HIGHEST QPF THROUGH TONIGHT MAY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS.
IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND REPEATED ROUNDS IN URBAN AREAS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO LINGER FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT COOL N/NE FLOW TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN A DECAYING
NATURE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-80. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY
COMBINED WITH ANY BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-80 DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT
IN HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THE LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-80.

ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THE KEY WILL BE WHERE DOES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL
OUT. SEVERAL MODELS PLACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN INDIANA
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. IF THIS PLACEMENT IS CORRECT...THEN ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...

THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PICTURE
WOULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE FRONTAL POSITION
IS LOCATED.

IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THESE DRY PERIODS MAY BE 6
OR MORE HOURS LONG. CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE DRY WEATHER MAY OCCUR IS
QUITE LOW.

RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY FOR A POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. LARGE SCALE SIGNALS IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
AFFECTING THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

18Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE 20Z TO
22Z TIME FRAME...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND LAST
TO END AT KBRL. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE
TAFS PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY


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