Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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619
FXUS63 KDVN 171151
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
551 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

High pressure ridge over the area providing clear skies and light
winds. Temperatures in the dvn cwa range from zero to 7 below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Warming trend commences as high pressure ridge shifts southeast
and winds become southwest. Skies should be mainly clear. Highs
will be in the lower 20s with lows in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Trend to above normal temperatures Thursday onward with storm system
of rain changing to snow Monday.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...fair or average. Little
sensible weather impacts still on tap until late Saturday with
possible high temperatures about 2 to 4 degrees too low late Friday
& Saturday. Still limited confidence on locations and amounts of
snow on Monday as system moves east.

Thursday through Saturday...nice warmup for mid January with mostly
fair skies and highs in the 30s Thursday and well into the 40s remain
likely Friday and Saturday.  Mins in the upper teens to mid 20s
Thursday night, rising into the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday night.
Mostly southwest winds of 5 to 15+ mph gusts in afternoon.

Sunday and Monday...confidence increasing of a strong storm system
to bring seasonably high precipitation to area. Track supports a
deepening surface low to track across central to north sections
supporting mostly rain. Strength of surface and upper low should
allow some wraparound snows Monday with light amounts, possibly
locally moderate amounts far northwest.  Likely most areas should
pick up at least a half inch of needed liquid moisture.  Highs
remain progged to mostly be in 30s and 40s with lower 50s possible
in the south on Saturday.  Lows in the upper 20s and 30s into Monday
AM and then mostly teens and 20s Tuesday AM.

Tuesday and Wednesday...return to mostly fair skies and near normal
temperatures for highs and lows. This is mostly 25 to 35 for highs
and lows 15 to 25.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conds with mainly SKC through this taf cycle. Southwest winds
will be gusting to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon into this
evening.  Winds may stay gusty overnight especially at KCID/KDBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Haase



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