Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 171148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH 130 METER HEIGHT
FALLS AT KINL LAST EVENING. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS CAUSING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
STRATUS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL IA AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 32 KNOTS. FIRST COLD FRONT
WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHILE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MN TO NORTHERN NEB.

3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONLY OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA
SHOULD HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH...
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE STRONGER
FORCING REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE NORTH
OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IN OUR NORTHERN CWA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM YESTERDAY WE SHOULD
HAVE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 60S FAR SE. DUE TO THE CLOUDS I WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO REMAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET BUT REMAIN AT ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FROST AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS. EXPECT A NORTH WIND
AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A
SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND WILL NOT INCLUDE FROST IN THE FORECAST GRIDS IN THESE
AREAS AS THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED. NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST. HEADLINES WOULD STILL BE
CONSIDERED NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE.

LOOK FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL BE
KEY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF 60-65 DEGREES
MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM MAKING ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH
FOR MORE PATCHY FROST NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE STRATUS WITH
VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS...THEN SUBSIDING TOWARDS SUNSET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...HAASE





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