Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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544
FXUS63 KDVN 210430
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

A mesohigh from a slowly rotating vort max was located over far
southwestern portions of the CWA. This slowly moving vort max was
leading to extremely localized rainfall across Scotland county
today. Another vort max was heading south across the upper Great
Plains this afternoon. This vort max should help to clear the slow
moving vort out of northern Missouri in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Main forecast concern for the short term is how long the vort max
over Scotland county will reside and how much rain will fall from
it. With drier air just to the north of this wave, rain has been
slow to move north. After this, clear skies and warmer temps are
forecast for Saturday.

Northerly flow tomorrow along with a drier airmass could lead to
dewpoints dropping across the area during Saturday afternoon. This
could also lead to higher highs tomorrow. This will need to be
watched overnight and into tomorrow. Otherwise, from a sensible
weather standpoint, tomorrow looks to be perfect! Highs in the
70s, sunny and low relative humidity!

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Warmer and more humid trend with daily chances for showers and
storms next week.

Long term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average
with daily chances of precipitation next week the main issue.

Overview...initialization and verification are good to excellent
with little discernible discrepancies. Run to run variance and
moisture budget issues suggest gfs too moist next week with a 70/30
blend of hi-res ecmwf to gfs preferred...to better capture daily
pops next week.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Fair skies and a warming trend
with slowly higher dewpoints as south winds kick in.  Mins in the
lower 50s for Sunday AM and mid/upper 50s Monday AM.  Highs Sunday
should be around 80 degrees mostly locations with a light south
wind.

Monday through Friday...Southwesterly flow and increasing dewpoints
to result in daily chances of showers and thunderstorms...mostly in
the afternoon and evening hours.  Pops mostly in the 30 to 50
percent range.  Rainfall by Friday evening should total most
locations 1 to 2 plus inches with when the main issue.  Modest
instability suggested with MUCAPE generally 500 to 1500 J/KG and
enough shear for some isolated to possibly widely scattered severe
storms possible with enough forcing.  No major short wave suggested
with any severe to be straight line winds generally around 60 MPH and
hail around quarters or at the lower end of intensity.  Highs should
tend to range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows mostly in the
lower 60s.  This would tend to be slightly above normal for late
May.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Vfr conditions are expected through Saturday evening, and will likely
persist into Monday morning, as a ridge of high pressure moves
from the Midwest to the Great Lakes.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...McClure



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