Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS63 KDVN 232008
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CDT SHOWS FAIR SKIES WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
IOWA WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER
LOW OVER UTAH TO SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST ARRIVING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE ENERGY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SUPPORTS A RETURN
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...POOR OR BELOW AVERAGE.
THE ISSUE IS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THAT NIGHT WHEN FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS ALSO WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO RISK OF STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. MINS SHOULD BE UPPER 40S FAR NE SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE 50S
IN SW SECTIONS.

SUNDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH DEEP MIXING SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY
WELL INTO THE LOWER 80S AND POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S IN SW 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE LOW POPS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEST 1/4 BUT LACK
OF TRIGGER SUGGEST POPS ARE TOO HIGH AND ANY PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
WITH FRONT LATER THAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAIN ISSUE TO PASS
TO LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF BEING ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. THUS MOST AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEEING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FORCING
BECOMES WEAKER AND SHIFTS NORTH INTO MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. THUS
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH
TIME.

ON MONDAY...THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS ACROSS MN/WI WITH THE FRONT.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DECAY
MONDAY MORNING. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING IS WEAK
WITH THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ALOFT ARE FROM THE WEST. THUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECAYING OFF TO MORE SHOWERS AND ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE OVERALL SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS IS THAT A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STRONG HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY EASTERLY FLOW
INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BE OVERCOME BY THE MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH INTO THE AREA.

FORCING INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAXIMIZES ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL SIGNAL INDICATES WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO
CATEGORICAL. THE STRONG FORCING AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DOES SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE PAST 10 DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL IF ANY
WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA AS THE NEXT STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE STORM AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN
AND LEAVE FRIDAY NIGHT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TO
THE EAST. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.