Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 130801
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER MICHIGAN AND EXITING THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH UPSTREAM IN MONTANA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL IOWA INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S.  SOME
PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5KTS ARE
PREVENTING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TODAYS FORECAST IS MUCH QUIETER.  SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD...CENTERING OVER THE CWFA
AROUND MIDDAY THEN PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH NOW ALONG THE MT-CANADIAN BORDER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA. THUS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WE WILL
STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STAY A
SHADE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...FALLING TO AROUND 40. GIVEN
TOMORROWS RECORD LOWS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW...ONLY MOLINE
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE NEAR RECORD AGAIN TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND
THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
IOWA...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FAVORED. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW 60S AT BEST ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ON
TRACK...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY
FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN ARE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. STEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN... WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH VSBYS QUITE
VARIABLE. COLD AIR AND HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES
INITIALLY MVFR LIFTING TO VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 14 (TONIGHT)...

MOLINE.........39 IN 1974
CEDAR RAPIDS...36 IN 1929
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1974
BURLINGTON.....38 IN 1974

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...DMD





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