Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 052351
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
551 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

OVERALL... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BRL AND MLI
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
DBQ AND CID.

WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY
BRING FLURRIES... WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AT DBQ AND CID. OTHERWISE... LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MAY
LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH
OF I-80. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY PM
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE
BRL AND MLI SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE


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