Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 031133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID MS RVR VALLEY AND ACRS KY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES ON THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROFS JUTTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE DVN CWA LARGELY IN-BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES. ALOFT...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND THE CURRENT WATER
VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING A WAVE ROLLING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER IA
ATTM. THIS PERTURBATION WAS INDUCING THE SCTRD SPRINKLES ACRS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THIS PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE
REACHING THE SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TODAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED VORT COMPLEX ALOFT WILL LOOK TO
PROPAGATE ACRS CENTRAL IL INTO IND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY
ROTATE ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THRU AT LEAST 14Z OR
SO...THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
THEN EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING AS THE
LOCAL FCST AREA LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO ACTION ZONES...ONE BEING
SCTRD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP DIURNALLY UNDER
THE PASSING WAVE ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA. AND THE OTHER
BEING A SFC FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACRS MN INTO NORTHERN WI KICKING
UP SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND DIGGING TROF AXIS.
FCST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES MIX UP TO AROUND H9 MB
TODAY...MAKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LESS CLOUDS AND
HAZE/ELEVATED SMOKE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHS
AROUND 80.

TONIGHT...FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL UNDER A BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING...MORE LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE BUT WON/T MENTION IT AT THIS
POINT IN THE GRIDS.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE CURRENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND THAT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARD A
MORE ACTIVE ZONAL CONFIGURATION WILL BRING NEARLY DAILY CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INITIALLY OVER THE REGION SATURDAY SPREADS EAST SUNDAY...SETTING UP
DEEP WARM ADVECTION. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY...THEN A BIT WARMER
WITH LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY. LOW WILL AGAIN BE ONLY IN THE 50S
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A SLOWLY MODIFYING AND
MOISTENING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT MINS TO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AN MCS IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE NOCTURNAL SUPPORT
SHOULD KEEP THIS WELL WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT STILL POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE FAVORABLE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. THIS TIMING WOULD HOLD HIGHS IN A
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT STALLING OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH...
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS IS CONTINUED IN LATER
RUNS...THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
MAY BE REMOVED. THIS WOULD ALSO PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL/DRY
GREAT LAKES EASTERLIES...LEADING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TUESDAY
INTO WED...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE COOLER THAN THE ADVERTISED
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES FROM WED NIGHT ONWARD AS MODELS ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION. FOR NOW...FOLLOWING A BLEND...LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE CONTINUED THROUGHOUT WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GENERALLY JUST LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH
PASSING VFR LEVEL CLOUD COVER. EVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG IN SPOTS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.