Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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844
FXUS63 KDVN 261757 AAE
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS BUBBLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVERGENCE AT THE H8 LEVEL THIS MORNING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CONVECTION DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. PROB SEVERE AND MRMS DATA HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
THESE CELLS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL....HOWEVER NOTHING HAS BEEN
REPORTED YET. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY TO 100%.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE GROWING MISSOURI MCS HAS PRODUCED FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY UP TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS
ONLY BEING HANDLED BY THE HRRR AND PARTIALLY THE 06Z NAM. I HAVE
UPDATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EXPANDED AND UPPED
THEM TO INCLUDE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS MORNING.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING TOWARD SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST OVER THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

BY 7 AM...THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AFFECTED COLD WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH TO REACH HIGHWAY 30.  BY MID
MORNING...THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO CEDAR RAPIDS AND THE QUAD
CITIES. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...BY MID MORNING...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE MIXED WITH MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEATING THAT MAY HALT THE STRATUS FROM GOING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS CREATES A DAY WHERE THE SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE THE NORTH STRUGGLES THROUGH TO HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRATUS CAN STAY
OPAQUE THROUGH THE DAY...THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

DESPITE THE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES TODAY...IS SHOULD BE DRY DAY
FOR NEARLY OFF THE CWA...AS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MISSOURI ACTIVITY...WHICH
SHOWS A MORE LIKELY CHANCE TO DROP SOUTHEAST...MISSING OUR CWA ALL
TOGETHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY...DESPITE THE WARM
FRONT NEAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF EASTERN IOWA FOR QUITE A WHILE BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
CONTINUE AS STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS USHER IN LOW DEWPOINTS.
THUS...ANY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER
THROUGH WETBULB AFFECTS.  THIS WILL CREATE A COLD MARCH LIKE
NIGHT...WITH RAIN ARRIVING IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED AS CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
FARTHER SOUTHWEST STRATIFIES INTO A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF RAIN TONIGHT...RESULTS IN A NEARLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF DUBUQUE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA
AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. STRONG FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH A NICE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE SOUTH LIFTING OVER THE
COOL AIRMASS IN THE CWA...DUE TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMING OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STALLED IN FAR
NORTHERN MO. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RANGE...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH PWAT`S OVER 1.30 INCHES.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN MO AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
SCATTERED AND LIGHT. THE OCCLUDED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE DVN CWA ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL
FEEL LIKE A RAW DAY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AN EAST WIND GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TIME TO BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE MID WEEK EVENT IF NOT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
AT LEAST 1/2 TO 1 INCH. IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IL AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEAR THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS TAKES THE
LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER AND LOW CIGS IN THE AM TOMORROW.
LOOKS LIKE THE IFR AND NOW MVFR DECK THAT MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH
STOPPED A FEW MILES FROM MLI. CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP AREAS SOUTH
IN VFR FLIGHT RULES. LATER TODAY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH EARLY
TOMORROW. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DBQ HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING HAVE
GONE WITH PROB30 AT THOSE SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...GIBBS



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