Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 160642
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
142 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Key Messages
* Isolated strong to severe storms with the main threat large,
possibly very large (>2 inches) hail
* Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the main threat isolated
flooding
A nearly stationary front near the Coastal Plains may drift
northwest into our area at times courtesy of a weak inverted surface
trough while a series of mid level shortwaves move over our area.
These features provide forcing of an unseasonably moist airmass to
generate rounds of showers and thunderstorms early this morning
through Sunday. Elevated CAPE could bring isolated strong to severe
storms, especially across our southern areas near the front. The
main threat is large hail, possibly very large hail >2 inches.
Damaging wind gusts are possible south of the front in the warm
sector, however this may remain south of our area. PWs of 1.2 to 1.5
inches which are 150 to 225 percent of seasonal normals indicate a
potential for heavy rains and bring a threat of flash flooding where
storms train over the same areas or are slow moving. SPC has a 1 to
2 out of 5 risk for severe storms and WPC has a 1 to 2 out of 4 risk
for excessive rainfall. The greatest threats are this afternoon
through tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Sunday night we will remain situated on the SE side of a closed low
near the Four Corners, with broader troughing over the eastern
CONUS. In between, mid-level ridging will build as a reinforcing
cold front moves in along with drier air. Any lingering
precipitation will diminish, except right along the Rio Grande
overnight and through the day on Monday. Even there, chances are
only in the 15-40% range mostly. Breezy ENE winds of 10-20 mph and
some 30 mph gusts will help keep highs mainly in the 60s.
The drier air will help temps drop into the 40s by Tuesday morning
except along the rio Grande where it will remain in the 50s. During
the daytime, a shortwave may bring some low end rain chances, but
the ensemble mean has dried significantly over the past 24 hours and
so rain chances have largely been left out of the forecast at this
time except near the Rio. Continued seasonally cool temperatures
will top out again in the 60s with some upper 50s likely in portions
of the Hill Country. But southerly flow will redevelop on Wednesday
and we`ll begin a quick warm up back into the upper 70s and 80s by
Thursday and Friday. The Closed low will finally open and cross the
region Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing our next chances for
widespread showers and storms. While severe weather currently
appears unlikely for this round, that could change over the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
MVFR conditions most areas, except KDRT at low end VFR will lower to
IFR/LIFR overnight into Saturday morning, then remain there through
Saturday night. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are expected. Models remain
uncertain on exact track and have VCTS/VCSH mention. N to NE winds
prevail at 5 to 15 KTs with the strongest winds overnight into early
Saturday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 68 61 69 52 / 90 70 60 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 61 69 51 / 90 70 60 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 63 71 53 / 80 80 60 0
Burnet Muni Airport 65 58 66 49 / 80 70 50 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 74 61 73 57 / 70 70 80 50
Georgetown Muni Airport 67 60 66 49 / 90 70 60 10
Hondo Muni Airport 73 62 71 52 / 80 80 60 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 70 62 70 51 / 80 80 60 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 63 71 54 / 80 80 60 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 63 70 53 / 90 80 60 10
Stinson Muni Airport 74 64 71 55 / 80 80 60 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...04