National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 231743
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/

Vfr skies and light to moderate S/SE winds should last through
midnight at the TAF sites. Scattered convection and a weak frontal
zone will threaten to impact the TAF sites late tonight into daytime
Saturday. Deterministic raw model solutions suggest higher coverage
of convection that do the numerical MOS guidances; will favor the
more conservative MOS forecasts, given the raw solutions are in poor
agreement with each other and no solution suggests a credible MCS
threat. Expect the mid-level ridging to provide good resistance to
the first wave of instability unless a significant mcv were to take
shape over the next 18 hours. Will allow for a vcsh suggestion for
AUS late in the TAF period, and await better model clarification.
Expect considerable cloud debris from N TX convection to interrupt
some of the early morning mvfr cigs, but will keep with a prevailing
mvfr cig for much of the pre-dawn hours along I-35.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a weak trough over Texas. At
the surface, winds were generally light from the southeast across our
CWA. There was a cold front moving into the northern Panhandle. High
pressure centered over the Gulf will continue to dominate today with
hot conditions. High temperatures this afternoon will be near records
in some places. The hot temperatures combined with high relative
humidity will send heat indices to between 108 and 114 this afternoon
for most of the CWA outside of the Hill Country. We will issue a
heat advisory for this afternoon. Tonight the cold front will
approach our area and Saturday it will move in. This will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Tonight chances will be low and
be confined to the north and east. Saturday chances will increase
and spread across most of the area with only the southwest having
almost no chance. This front will also bring relief from the extreme
high temperatures.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The front will stall across our northeastern area and rain chances
will continue from Saturday night through Tuesday. Convection will be
diurnally driven and there will be better chances for precipitation
during the days Sunday through Tuesday. PW will be above normal and
there is a slight chance for locally heavy rainfall. By Wednesday the
subtropical ridge will build back over Texas from the west and will
reduce rain chances and push them to the east.

CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for today.
San Antonio        102
Austin Bergstrom   103
Austin Camp Mabry  103
Del Rio            106

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77  91  73  89 /   0  20  50  30  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  76  91  73  89 /   0  10  50  30  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  76  92  72  89 /   0  10  50  30  50
Burnet Muni Airport            99  75  87  71  86 /   0  20  40  30  50
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  79  96  74  93 /   0  10  20  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  75  89  71  87 /   0  20  40  30  50
Hondo Muni Airport            103  77  95  73  92 /   0  10  30  30  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  77  92  72  89 /   0  10  40  30  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  77  91  74  89 /  -   20  50  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport      101  78  93  74  90 /   0  10  40  30  50
Stinson Muni Airport          101  78  93  74  91 /   0  10  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bastrop...Bexar...Burnet...Caldwell...Comal...
De Witt...Dimmit...Fayette...Frio...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...
Karnes...Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Maverick...Medina...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...33
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
