Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 172328
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
628 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

As of 130 PM, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
affecting parts of the eastern half of South Central Texas while
light rain is observed across portions of the Rio Grande. The
activity across the Hill County, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains is
expected to continue through the rest of this afternoon. Stronger
storms could produce heavy downpours and even small hail.

Weather conditions improve this evening as a new surge of cooler and
drier air pushes from the north as a surface high pressure over the
Central Plains moves into the Southern Plains. The local area will
end up with north to northeast winds tonight into Monday. As the
surface high pressure pushes to the south over the Southern Plains
on Monday, the wind shifts to the southeast across the Rio Grande
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show an area of isentropic
ascent above the surface and hires models suggest light to isolated
moderate showers over parts of the Rio Grande as early as day-break.
The trend continues into the afternoon over that region while the
rest of South Central Texas stays relatively quiet and cooler with
no precipitation.

Cloudy conditions are forecast to remain for most of the day on
Monday with some breaks in the clouds late afternoon across the Hill
Country. High temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid
60s along and west of Interstate 35 and mid to upper 60s to the east
of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Overnight lows ranges
between the low to mid 40s across most areas of South Central Texas
with low 50s to the southwest of Bexar County and Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

South flow returns Tuesday to the area but low-level thermal
profiles will remain on the cool side with highs in the upper 50s to
middle 60s. Most locations will remain dry on Tuesday and Wednesday
as the atmosphere becomes more stable. High temperatures Wednesday
will warm into the 60s and 70s. The upper low that has been causing
our weekend rain is finally expected to push east into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and bring with it another
chance of rain. Not expecting heavy rainfall or decent chances for
severe weather, but a strong storm cannot be ruled out. Most of the
showers and storms should push east of the area by Thursday evening.
Temperatures behind the system should warm with highs Thursday in
the 70s and 80s. These warmer temperatures will likely continue for
the remainder of the long-term portion of the forecast with a dry
weekend expected next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

MVFR with patchy VFR ceilings are seen across much of the area for
the start of the TAF period. Some scattered showers will be possible
at AUS for the next hour, otherwise showers and thunderstorms will
push east of I-35 sites for the rest of the night. Ceilings should
slowly improve to VFR through the night, although DRT may briefly
drop back to MVFR from around 05-12Z. Northeast winds will increase
at I-35 terminals early Monday morning with elevated winds from 12-
15 mph continuing through 00Z. Lighter wind expected at DRT with a
chance for scattered showers from about 14-18Z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  66  46  64 /  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  52  66  44  64 /  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  66  47  64 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            49  63  43  64 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           56  64  53  65 /  30  50  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        50  64  42  64 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             52  65  47  62 /  10  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        52  66  45  62 /  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   55  65  45  64 /  30   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       53  65  48  62 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           55  66  50  64 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...29
Aviation...27


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