764
FXUS64 KEWX 111820
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
120 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

South-Central TX continues to be wedged between high pressure
systems situated over the Southwest CONUS and another over the
eastern Gulf into the Atlantic. This setup will support generally
quiet weather conditions across the region the remainder of today,
with minimal rain chances. Cannot rule out a stray shower or two with
deep moisture still recovering thanks to the help of a modest LLJ
transporting abundant Gulf moisture into the area. At time of
writing, isolated showers and storms have streamed in from the south
into portions of the Coastal Plains.

PWATs are forecast to increase (up to 1.7-2.0 inches) Saturday,
particularly along and east of the I-35 corridor, supporting a return
of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Coverage and intensity
will peak across the area Saturday afternoon, with some of these
storms producing locally heavy downpours. Locally heavy rainfall
could result in isolated to scattered flash flooding across portions
of the area, especially locations that received heavy rainfall over
the past week. This has prompted WPC to highlight a Slight (level 2
of 4) excessive rainfall risk from the Southern Edwards Plateau
eastward across the Hill Country to the I-35 corridor and a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for the Coastal Plains beginning 12Z Saturday
through 12Z Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

As the weekend progresses, a shortwave trough moving southeast from
CO will help push a front across the TX Panhandle. This front, along
with increased mid-level vorticity and moisture will lead to more
widespread rain and thunderstorms north of our CWA. While the
highest rainfall potential does remain focused to our north, South-
Central TX will still see isolated to scattered convection through
Sunday, since sufficient PWATs will be in place to support locally
heavy rainfall. The previous Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall published by WPC has been expanded to cover much
of the same area as the previously mentioned Slight risk in the above
short term discussion. This Marginal risk will be in effect from 12Z
Sunday through 12Z Monday.

Looking ahead into next week, rain chances diminish as drier mid-
level air and slightly below normal PWATs filter in. While models are
signaling another round of light Saharan dust arriving by mid week,
it is not expected to have a significant impact. Temperatures will
trend upward, with most locations climbing into the 90s and around
100 degF in the Rio Grande Plains. Heat risk will increase
accordingly to minor to moderate levels through next Tuesday.
Overnight lows will remain seasonable in the low to mid 70s
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening across Central
and South Central TX. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop across the
area between 07-09Z, then back to VFR between 15-17Z Saturday
morning. There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon, mainly
eastern portions of the area. However, the chances are too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time. If any convection did move across a
TAF site, it would be brief with minimal aviation impacts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  93  75  94 /   0  40  20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  93  75  94 /   0  40  20  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  93  74  94 /   0  20  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            74  90  73  90 /   0  30  30  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  98  77  95 /   0   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  92  74  93 /   0  40  20  40
Hondo Muni Airport             75  94  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  93  74  94 /   0  30  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  91  75  92 /  10  50  10  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  93  76  94 /   0  20  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  77  96 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...98
Long-Term...98
Aviation...81