Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 210550
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
Radar trends at TAF issuance were relatively quiet with only light
return observed in the vicinity of all four terminals. Model guidance
indicates -SHRA development along the Rio Grande impacting first KDRT
this morning and spreading east to the I-35 corridor by late morning
and early afternoon. Expecting category fluctuations above and below
2 kft throughout much of the morning before becoming primarily VFR in
the afternoon with occasional -SHRA or -TSRA impacts causing brief
category changes. Higher confidence in impacts at KDRT warranted the
TEMPO inclusion and prevailing early -TSRA whereas direct impacts to
I-35 terminals will be more sporadic through the morning.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rain over Frio
County is likely to continue to push to the east-southeast in the
next few hours. This cluster of storms is being lingering there for
hours at the tail end of the cold front. Storm total rainfall amounts
over parts of Uvalde and Frio counties reached 6 to 8 inches of
rain past 8 hours based on radar estimation numbers. There is the
potential for isolated severe thunderstorms within the next few
hours mainly along and south of Highway 90 where SPC has a severe
thunderstorm watch in effect through 5 PM CDT.

HiRes models are all over the place with the weather conditions
expected for late this afternoon and evening. Went ahead with a blend
of HRRR and RAP solutions where the cold front continues to push
slowly to the southeast with slight chances for strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop for the period with moderate confidence on
locally heavy rain capable of producing localized flooding.

There is a slight chance for elevated convection behind the front
late this afternoon and evening across portion of the southern
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande with additional scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms along the Rio Grande Plains overnight.

A second round of severe thunderstorms is possible along and west of
Interstate 35 on Sunday as an upper level low pressure system over
the northern Plains moves towards the Upper Midwest. The surface
boundary/cold front is expected to stall or slowly push back to the
north over the coastal Plains and brings southeasterly winds to the
Rio Grande Plains. This combination will aid the development of
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts in addition of localized heavy rain.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The wet weather pattern continues into Monday as an upper level
short-wave disturbance moves across the area and abundant Gulf
moisture remains in place. Another cold front is forecast to push
across the area Tuesday morning with chances of rain expected across
the entire area. Weather conditions begin to improve Wednesday with
dry weather expected through Saturday. Temperatures will be below
normal values through the middle of the week and back to near normals
by Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  67  79  65  82 /  30  60  70  50  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  67  78  65  82 /  30  60  70  50  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  67  80  65  83 /  30  70  70  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            78  63  77  62  78 /  30  60  60  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  68  85  68  86 /  50  60  40  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  64  77  63  80 /  30  60  60  50  30
Hondo Muni Airport             82  68  82  66  84 /  30  70  50  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        80  66  79  66  82 /  30  60  70  50  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  69  80  66  81 /  30  50  80  60  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  68  81  68  83 /  30  70  60  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           82  69  81  68  83 /  30  70  60  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen



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