Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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617
FXUS64 KEWX 232355
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

Currently VFR at all TAF sites with southeasterly winds. VFR is
expected to continue until around or shortly after midnight tonight,
at which time CIGs are anticipated to lower to MVFR at the Interstate
35 sites. The primary forecast question is how far south will the
cold front reach, as well as the coverage and intensity of any
showers or thunderstorms associated with it. Presently the cold front
is analyzed from near Hobbs NM northeast through southeastern OK and
slowly making its progression southward. A complex of showers and
storms are ongoing from roughly Midland eastward toward the Abilene
area. High-res models suggest this activity should dissipate before
entering into our northwestern counties. However, models show a new
MCS forming in the DFW region Saturday morning and heading southward.
It is unclear if this will stay together long enough to reach AUS,
but have included VCSH in the AUS TAF starting at 15z. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening
for the Interstate 35 sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Hot and humid conditions continue across south central Texas this
afternoon. Given recent observations and short term model guidance,
the current Heat Advisory is in good shape and will continue until 8
PM. Southeast winds remain intact this evening and cooling after
sunset will be rather slow given plenty of low-level moisture in
place. Rain chances for tonight will remain low and generally
confined to areas north of a Del Rio to Austin to La Grange line. The
hi-res models continue to show convection developing across west
central Texas this evening, with some of this activity possibly
reaching the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country around
or shortly after midnight. This convection is expected to weaken as
it moves southward into our region. Elsewhere, the hi-res models also
show convection developing across north Texas early Saturday morning
as a cold front moves southward. We should see enough convection to
help usher the cold front southward during the morning hours on
Saturday. The front will likely halt it`s southward progress during
the afternoon and should remain north of the Highway 90 corridor.
However, we should see enough convergence along the front and outflow
boundaries to initiate scattered shower and thunderstorm development
on Saturday. Temperatures will cool given the expected increase in
cloud cover and precipitation. However, areas south of the front
could still see highs in the mid 90s to near 100.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A reinforcing shot of high pressure moving into Oklahoma and
Arkansas early Sunday morning should be enough to help the front
slide a little farther southward on Sunday. We should continue to see
a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with better coverage
in the afternoon and evening during peak heating. As we head into
early next week, the frontal boundary will continue to weaken and
become ill-defined. A fairly active northwest flow aloft is still
expected to continue into early next week and we`ll continue a
chance for showers and storms across south central Texas. We should
see enough influence from a subtropical ridge building in from the
west toward the middle of the upcoming week for a return of warm
temperatures and dry weather for most areas. We can`t rule out some
sea breeze convection near the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor
and will mention a low chance in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  91  73  88  71 /  10  40  30  50  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  91  72  87  70 /  10  40  30  50  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  92  72  89  70 /  10  40  30  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            74  87  70  85  69 /  20  40  30  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  96  76  94  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  89  70  86  69 /  20  50  30  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             77  95  73  92  71 /  -   30  20  50  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  92  72  89  71 /  10  40  30  50  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  92  74  88  72 /  20  40  40  50  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  93  74  91  73 /  -   40  20  50  30
Stinson Muni Airport           78  94  75  91  73 /  -   30  20  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bastrop...Bexar...Burnet...Caldwell...Comal...
De Witt...Dimmit...Fayette...Frio...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...
Karnes...Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Maverick...Medina...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Williams
Synoptic/Grids...LH
Public Service/Data Collection...30



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