Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 171852
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
152 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
As of 130 PM, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
affecting parts of the eastern half of South Central Texas while
light rain is observed across portions of the Rio Grande. The
activity across the Hill County, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains is
expected to continue through the rest of this afternoon. Stronger
storms could produce heavy downpours and even small hail.
Weather conditions improve this evening as a new surge of cooler and
drier air pushes from the north as a surface high pressure over the
Central Plains moves into the Southern Plains. The local area will
end up with north to northeast winds tonight into Monday. As the
surface high pressure pushes to the south over the Southern Plains
on Monday, the wind shifts to the southeast across the Rio Grande
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show an area of isentropic
ascent above the surface and hires models suggest light to isolated
moderate showers over parts of the Rio Grande as early as day-break.
The trend continues into the afternoon over that region while the
rest of South Central Texas stays relatively quiet and cooler with
no precipitation.
Cloudy conditions are forecast to remain for most of the day on
Monday with some breaks in the clouds late afternoon across the Hill
Country. High temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid
60s along and west of Interstate 35 and mid to upper 60s to the east
of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Overnight lows ranges
between the low to mid 40s across most areas of South Central Texas
with low 50s to the southwest of Bexar County and Rio Grande.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
South flow returns Tuesday to the area but low-level thermal
profiles will remain on the cool side with highs in the upper 50s to
middle 60s. Most locations will remain dry on Tuesday and Wednesday
as the atmosphere becomes more stable. High temperatures Wednesday
will warm into the 60s and 70s. The upper low that has been causing
our weekend rain is finally expected to push east into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and bring with it another
chance of rain. Not expecting heavy rainfall or decent chances for
severe weather, but a strong storm cannot be ruled out. Most of the
showers and storms should push east of the area by Thursday evening.
Temperatures behind the system should warm with highs Thursday in
the 70s and 80s. These warmer temperatures will likely continue for
the remainder of the long-term portion of the forecast with a dry
weekend expected next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
MVFR and IFR conditions are forecast to remain for the local
terminals at least through this evening. Continued MVFR/IFR for KDRT
through at least noon Monday. For the I-35 sites, VFR cigs are
forecast to come mid evening and staying through Monday. North to
northeast winds around 10 knots are expected for the I-35 airports
tonight with gusts up to 25 knots overnight through noon Monday.
There is a window from 18Z through 00Z that showers and even a
thunderstorm could move close enough to the I-35 sites especially
KSAT and KAUS. Very little shower or storm activity is expected after
00Z with the exception of passing showers over KDRT this evening into
Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 53 66 46 64 / 20 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 66 44 64 / 20 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 53 66 47 64 / 10 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 49 63 43 64 / 20 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 56 64 53 65 / 30 50 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 50 64 42 64 / 20 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 52 65 47 62 / 10 10 0 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 52 66 45 62 / 20 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 65 45 64 / 30 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 53 65 48 62 / 10 10 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 55 66 50 64 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...29
Aviation...17