


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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752 FXUS64 KEWX 112326 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 South-Central TX continues to be wedged between high pressure systems situated over the Southwest CONUS and another over the eastern Gulf into the Atlantic. This setup will support generally quiet weather conditions across the region the remainder of today, with minimal rain chances. Cannot rule out a stray shower or two with deep moisture still recovering thanks to the help of a modest LLJ transporting abundant Gulf moisture into the area. At time of writing, isolated showers and storms have streamed in from the south into portions of the Coastal Plains. PWATs are forecast to increase (up to 1.7-2.0 inches) Saturday, particularly along and east of the I-35 corridor, supporting a return of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Coverage and intensity will peak across the area Saturday afternoon, with some of these storms producing locally heavy downpours. Locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated to scattered flash flooding across portions of the area, especially locations that received heavy rainfall over the past week. This has prompted WPC to highlight a Slight (level 2 of 4) excessive rainfall risk from the Southern Edwards Plateau eastward across the Hill Country to the I-35 corridor and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for the Coastal Plains beginning 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 As the weekend progresses, a shortwave trough moving southeast from CO will help push a front across the TX Panhandle. This front, along with increased mid-level vorticity and moisture will lead to more widespread rain and thunderstorms north of our CWA. While the highest rainfall potential does remain focused to our north, South- Central TX will still see isolated to scattered convection through Sunday, since sufficient PWATs will be in place to support locally heavy rainfall. The previous Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall published by WPC has been expanded to cover much of the same area as the previously mentioned Slight risk in the above short term discussion. This Marginal risk will be in effect from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday. Looking ahead into next week, rain chances diminish as drier mid- level air and slightly below normal PWATs filter in. While models are signaling another round of light Saharan dust arriving by mid week, it is not expected to have a significant impact. Temperatures will trend upward, with most locations climbing into the 90s and around 100 degF in the Rio Grande Plains. Heat risk will increase accordingly to minor to moderate levels through next Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain seasonable in the low to mid 70s throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 SHRA/TSRA are weakening and will dissipate by 02Z. Have VCSH mention at the I-35 sites to start of forecast. SHRA/TSRA will redevelop on Saturday. The best chances are currently at KAUS where have PROB30s for 18Z to 00Z. Later forecasts will evaluate the need to increase PROBs at the other sites. The usual summer flying conditions are expected with MVFR CIGs overnight into morning, then VFR afternoon into evening. However, brief restrictions to CIGS/VSBYs are expected in SHRA/TSRA. S to SE winds prevail with gustiness during the day through evening hours and near SHRA/TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 93 75 94 / 10 40 20 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 93 75 94 / 10 40 20 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 93 74 94 / 10 20 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 74 90 73 90 / 20 30 30 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 98 77 95 / 0 0 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 92 74 93 / 10 40 20 40 Hondo Muni Airport 75 94 74 93 / 20 10 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 93 74 94 / 10 30 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 91 75 92 / 10 50 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 93 76 94 / 10 20 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 77 96 77 96 / 10 20 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...99 Long-Term...99 Aviation...04