Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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383
FXUS64 KEWX 161742
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.AVIATION... /18z TAFS/
With VFR conditions expected at all Central Texas terminals through
the forecast period, winds will be the only weather of note. Winds
today will be gusty out of the north, but will decrease this evening
through the overnight hours and into Tuesday. Winds may shift
slightly northeast by Tuesday as high pressure builds into Central
Texas.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected for all area airports through the
forecast period. Northerly winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots are anticipated through early this afternoon along the I-35
terminals. Winds relax this evening as a high pressure system over
north Texas pushes to the Ohio Valley region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Cool conditions and breezy northerly winds continue across South-
Central Texas tonight. The 10-15 mph winds are keeping temperatures
from dropping too far with values currently in the 50s to middle 60s.
Should see temps drop several more degrees before solar insolation
commences with sunrise. Today should be pretty outstanding across the
region with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the lower to
middle 70s. Surface winds well be weaker tonight, and with dewpoints
in the 30s and 40s we should have much better radiational cooling
than tonight. This will lead to our coldest night of the Fall season
with lows bottoming out in the 40s for much if not all the area.
Lower 40s are expected for the Hill Country. Another day in the 70s
to near 80 degrees is expected Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Winds will remain light through the Wednesday which should keep
moisture values low. After lows in the 40s and 50s Wednesday morning,
highs will be in the lower 80s across much of the region. By
Thursday, a weak shortwave trough will approach the area and we
should southerly flow increase ahead of the system. This increase in
flow should help bring begin to bring moisture back to the region.
The areas with sufficient moisture for rain chances Thursday
afternoon in an area of weak lift will be across the southeastern
quadrant of the CWA and will show a 20 PoP. Friday, the trough will
be east of the area, but moisture values should continue to support
isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and storms for areas
east of I-35.

On Saturday, a large trough axis will be pushing through the Central
Plains and this trough axis will send another cold front into the
area on Sunday. The GFS is farther south and slower than the ECMWF
on the track of the base of the trough and is therefore much more wet
than the ECMWF ahead of the front Saturday through Sunday. This
trough axis is expected to close off into closed-low as well on
Sunday which could continue rain chances beyond the forecast package.
However, there are large differences in the medium-range guidance
regarding the exact location where this is expected to happen. Rain
chances and temperatures Sunday and beyond will be highly dependent
on the exact position of the closed low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  49  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  47  78  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  48  79  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  45  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  49  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  46  78  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  46  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  46  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  47  79  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  49  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  50  79  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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