736
FXUS64 KEWX 301122
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
622 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trend slightly below average this week, then slightly
  above average next weekend.

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms trend westward by mid
  week with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible.

- Light concentrations of Saharan dust aloft with no impact on
  surface visibilities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The Subtropical Ridge remains over eastern Texas while upper level
troughing takes shape over northern Mexico into Western Texas today.
This maintains deep moisture over most of our area continuing our
low chances of showers and thunderstorms. The Ridge builds a little
to the west over eastern parts of our area on Tuesday. This brings a
drier and somewhat subsident airmass along with some Saharan dust.
This causes the low chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue
out west while wane over the eastern areas. With PWs nearing 2
inches, cannot rule out locally heavy downpours. Gusty winds are
possible as the storms collapse. While skies overhead may become
hazy due to the dust aloft, surface visibilities will not be
impacted. Near average temperatures continue in the east while
"cooling" to below average out west due to increased moisture and
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 20254

The Subtropical Ridge remains centered to our east with upper level
troughing over Mexico into western Texas mid into late week. Deep
moisture is focused out west with a drier and subsident airmass in
the east. As a result, the higher rain chances are out west. Locally
heavy downpours and gusty winds are possible out west. A potential
for nighttime warm rain processes could also develop out west should
more tropical moisture be drawn over that area. Below average high
temperatures continue out west due to the increased clouds and rain
with near average high temperatures across eastern areas closer to
the Subtropical Ridge. The Ridge builds over our area as most of the
trough lifts over the top of the Ridge while the remainder fills next
weekend. Moisture decreases, subsidence increases, and another surge
of Sahara dust lead to rain chances waning. Temperatures warm to
near to slightly above average next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Patchy MVFR ceilings will continue through 15-16Z at terminals
before VFR conditions return to all of South Central Texas. A plume
of Saharan dust moves over the eastern half of the area today which
could bring periods of HZ, though visibility is unlikely to fall
below 6SM. Models have been consistent bringing showers and
thunderstorms north into the area this afternoon and have included
TEMPO groups at SAT/SSF for the best timing. There remains lesser
confidence for activity at DRT and AUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  73  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  93  72 /  30  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  73  88  74 /  30  40  60  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  73  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             90  70  87  72 /  40  20  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  95  73 /  30  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           92  73  92  75 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27