Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201735
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1235 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
Complex of showers and thunderstorms remains confined southwest of
the San Antonio TAF sites and east of DRT. This complex is slow to
move but overall motion is to the southeast. Think this for the most
part will miss the TAF sites, but may need to watch out for stray
lightning strikes from the anvil in closer proximity to the San
Antonio sites. Pockets of MVFR ceilings continue as well at the
airports and this should continue over the next few hours with
intermittent VFR. VFR should prevail in the late afternoon and
evening hours before MVFR and perhaps IFR returns tonight. Once this
activity moves out later this afternoon, could see a decent break
before redevelopment is possible late tonight and tomorrow. Will
include VCSH to cover this threat.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

UPDATE...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for areas along and south of
Highway 90 through 5 PM.

Latest radar images show a big cluster of storms over eastern Uvalde
and Western Medina Counties. At this time those storms are producing
very heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and
possibly small hail. Per latest analysis, storms will continue to
develop along outflow boundaries and the actual cold front as it
moves to the southeast late this morning into the afternoon hours.
The HRRR and RAP models are in fair agreement with current radar
trends with small differences on storm locations. Otherwise, showers
and storms are expected to continue as the front slowly pushes to the
southeast with some storms becoming strong to severe and produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, the current overall
radar images show the potential for heavy rain to be the main
weather hazard as storms slowly move to the southeast within the next
several hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

UPDATE...
12Z Aviation Update Below.

AVIATION...
Latest runs of the HRRR have finally caught on to the convection in
the short term. A scattered to broken line of SHRAs and TSTMs moving
east through the Hill Country will expand and move southeast during
the morning hours as a cold front enters the region. These SHRAs and
TSTMs are expected to impact the DRT area 12Z-15Z, AUS area 14Z-17Z,
and the SAT area 15Z-18Z. A N to NE wind around 10 kts will develop
behind the front late morning at AUS/SAT as well as DRT. The winds
may possibly weaken and turn back toward the east late afternoon, but
this is less certain. Re-development of SHRAs and possible TSTMs is
also less certain late afternoon and tonight. Ceilings outside of
precip MVFR this morning becoming VFR 15Z-18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Showers and storms ongoing early this morning through the Hill
Country along and behind and outflow boundary from earlier storms and
in an area of forcing aloft. Elevated CAPE as well as DCAPE values
will support a hail and damaging straight-line winds through the next
couple of hours. In addition watching closely across the northeast
Hill Country for some localized flooding where training of storms is
occurring.

Storms across the northeast Hill Country should shift east out of
the CWA later this morning. Re-development of storms further south is
then expected late morning into the afternoon near and south of U.S.
90/I-10 as the actual cold front moves into the area. Along and to
the south of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s F across south-central Texas and steep mid level lapse
rates will result in moderate to strong instability. Deep layer shear
values ranging from 40-50 kts combined with the instability will
support a few discrete cells capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening hours.

The threat for scattered showers and isolated storms will continue
through the overnight and into Sunday as forcing aloft and the weak
boundary remain in the region.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
A stronger mid and upper level disturbance is shown be most reliable
models to move across the region from west to east Sunday Night
through Monday. NAM12 is the fastest with this feature, while the
ECMWF is slowest and GFS/Canadian in the middle. Have trended toward
the GFS/Canadian, with showers and storms expanding quickly in
coverage Sunday night across the western half of the CWA and possibly
organizing and moving east through the eastern half of the CWA on
Monday. Regardless of timing all models indicate the potential for
some pockets of locally heavier rainfall as precipitable water values
pool to around 1.8 inches over portions of the region. On average
1-3 inches of rainfall is expected, however some isolated pockets up
to 5-6 inches can`t be ruled out. In addition, a few strong to severe
storms with hail and damaging winds can`t be ruled out Sunday night
across the western CWA.

Depending on how organized this round of convection becomes Sunday
night through Monday there could be a break in the rain chances over
the CWA Monday night through Tuesday morning. Another chance of
showers and storms is expected Tuesday afternoon and night as a final
disturbance and stronger cold front move through the region.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Return flow and warmer conditions will re-develop Thursday night
and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              84  67  82  67  79 /  60  50  30  60  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  67  82  67  79 /  60  50  30  60  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  68  83  68  80 /  60  50  30  70  80
Burnet Muni Airport            80  63  79  64  77 /  50  50  30  60  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  68  83  68  84 /  60  50  50  80  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  65  80  65  78 /  60  50  30  50  80
Hondo Muni Airport             86  68  85  68  83 /  60  50  40  80  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  67  83  67  80 /  60  50  30  60  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  70  84  70  80 /  60  50  30  50  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  68  83  68  81 /  60  50  30  70  80
Stinson Muni Airport           85  70  83  69  82 /  60  50  30  70  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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