Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS64 KEWX 092329
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
529 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at all TAF sites under clear skies and light north/northwesterly
winds. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the entirety of
the forecast period. Winds will become westerly by late Sunday
morning/early Sunday afternoon but will remain light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A clear and quiet day today across South Central Texas. Only
meteorological challenge is the much drier than forecast dewpoints
across the western half of the CWA. Dewpoints in the teens in
Kerrville and Fredericksburg have result in RH values falling also
into the teens. This warranted an upgrade to at least elevated fire
weather conditions in these much drier locations, however, with
multiple days of widespread precip, rain or snowpack melt, has kept
area fuels quite moist and thus stronger wording does not seem
necessary at this point.

Tonight, winds will shift from northwesterly to more northerly which
should help lows fall a bit easier overnight compared to this morning
and the maintained westerly component to the winds. The drier surface
air, clear skies, and light winds overnight should again set the
stage for an efficient radiational cooling set up and allow
temperatures to reach near freezing or below in the colder locations
on the Plateau and Hill Country, with slightly higher temperatures
off the Plateau.

A similar day is expected tomorrow, clear and warm. Have raised
temperatures a bit compared to guidance with a weak west wind
returning and thicknesses continuing to increase over the region.
Again in the afternoon hours, RH values will fall into the low 20
percent and even upper teens possibly which may warrant a more
isolated but still elevated fire weather concern. Otherwise, a very
nice day for outdoor activities.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Continued warming is expected through Monday as a weak ridge builds
ahead of our next anticipated cold front on Tuesday morning. Models
continue to bring this frontal passage through without any precip,
which seems logical given the very dry air mass in place during
fropa. A weak low will continue to sit out west over Mexico and keep
us in a very weak, quasi zonal H5 pattern through mid week.

Looks like the next best shot at precip will be next Saturday as this
weak low gets reinforced by a strong low pressure center originating
from the Pacific Northwest and diving south along the Rocky Mountain
range. Model agreement is not quite as impressive with the 12Z runs
compared to this time yesterday but still generally agree with this
low eventually producing healthy QPF across perhaps our eastern CWA
Saturday night into Sunday. Included slight PoPs in the grids for day
7 for now as plenty of uncertainty still exists in the location for
this development. But at this time, no hazards are expected through
the long term period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              37  71  42  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  34  68  37  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     35  70  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            34  70  38  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           36  68  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        35  70  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             33  70  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        34  70  38  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   34  65  38  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       37  70  40  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           37  68  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Williams
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.