Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 130908
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
408 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Early this morning a cold front was along a line from New Ulm,
northeast to the western part of the Twin Cities, and near Mora.
Behind the front, gusty winds develop temporarily from the
northwest. Ahead of the front, some low clouds and patchy drizzle
was noted in west central Wisconsin, mainly north of Rice Lake to
Ladysmith. Satellite imagery does indicate an increase area of mid
level moisture streaming northeast across the Upper Midwest along
with some elevated radar returns in Nebraska and South Dakota. As of
3 am, no precipitation had been reported at the ground, or at least
not from local airport observations.

Today`s forecast is dependent on the amount of moisture below 8k as
ample lift was noted from the 25H jet aloft, and isentropic lift
between 85-70H in Nebraska. Some of the short term models indicated
that moisture /85-70H/ will rapidly increase this morning along the
stronger isentropic lift across Nebraska, and Iowa. This increasing
moisture component and the added mid-level short wave and associated
moisture across South Dakota, should be enough to warrant light
rain/sprinkles from south central Minnesota, to west central
Wisconsin. Further to the north, moisture depth is less and if
anything develops, it should be more virga than light rain. This
weather system should quickly move off to the east/southeast by the
late afternoon with mainly clear skies overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A trough will approach from the Rockies early Saturday and spawn
an area of low pressure over the central Plains. As the system
encounters moistening isentropic upglide over the Midwest, rain is
expected to develop rapidly along a quasi stationary front to the
south along I-80 and along the leading edge of the trough over
the Dakotas Saturday morning. The rain shield will fill in by
Saturday afternoon across southern MN due to these features
phasing and the surface system maturing. The rain shield will lift
northeast before the deformation band reaches maturity, so
amounts will be light. Colder air behind the system Saturday night
could allow for a few snowflakes across western and central MN,
but it appears any steady precip will be well east by that time
with mid level dry air also pushing in.

A chilly Sunday and Sunday night will be followed by a very
tranquil and mild period across the vast majority of the CONUS
for next week. A large ridge will develop across the south,
shifting the storm track to the Pacific Northwest and Canada. This
will prevent any cold air intrusions from reaching this far south
until perhaps next weekend. Southerly surface flow will keep lows
in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s and maybe 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A cold front will move across the area overnight, and bring back
in low stratus clouds, primarily from far eastern MN across west
central WI. Expect ceilings to lower back down to MVFR at
KRNH/KEAU, possibly reducing to IFR overnight. KMSP will be on the
edge, most likely in and out of the broken-ovc ceiling, so have
included a tempo. In the wake of the front, skies clear out by
late morning (with except possibly at KEAU) and VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds shift to southwest and then northwest as the
front passes, eventually becoming north/northeast by the end of
the period. Speeds will be generally in the 6-12 knot range.

KMSP...
The site will be right on the western edge of the stratus deck.
Thinking a low-end VFR deck will be prevalent, but occasional
1800-2400 ft cigs will be possible overnight. Have included a
tempo for the most likely time frame, attendant with the frontal
passage.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. MVFR late with p.m. SHRA likely. Wind ENE 5-10
kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS



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