Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 130929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
329 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

As expected, strong isentropic lift on a 40-50kt h85 jet has
resulted in the development of enough lift to generate ample cloud
cover and returns on radar out in western MN. However, the
antecedent low level airmass has been too dry and duration of
forcing too short to actually get much of this activity to reach the
ground and this forcing will pass through in the early morning hours
without much fanfare.

For the rest of today, we`ll spend the morning working mid level
cloudiness off to the east.  This afternoon, mainly sunny skies are
expected, though there is the threat that some stratus may develop
over central MN where the RAP shows 0.5 km condensation pressure
deficits dropping under 10 mb, which also coincides with where the
HRRR is developing lower clouds this afternoon as well. Southwest
winds will increase quite a bit, getting into the 10-15kt range
across MN, but they will also usher in much warmer air, with our
first day of highs near normal this month expected this afternoon.

Despite mild temps and 30+ dewpoints moving up on to the Iowa
snowpack tonight, not expected much in the way of clouds or fog here
as continued southwest winds push that moisture east of area. This
will set the stage for even milder temperatures to come for

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Temperature ups and downs look to mark the long term forecast
period, along with precipitation chances every few days.

At the start of the period, a warm front will be lifting into the
area on Wednesday morning. Could see the typical stratus/fog
scenario unfold, but given brisk southwest winds, mixing should
prove sufficient to bring mostly sunny conditions by mid to late
warming. Therefore have continued to lean toward the warmer end of
guidance for highs, with upper 30s to lower 40s across the area,
and possibly even mid 40s along the Buffalo ridge.

Thursday brings the cold frontal passage and weak lift associated
with a mid level shortwave trough. Attendant light snow is
expected to develop, with only minor accumulations anticipated. `

Cold surface high pressure moves in behind the front on Thursday
night and Friday, with highs retreating back into the teens and
lower 20s.

The weekend brings an amplifying trough over the western CONUS.
The return of southwest flow and mid level ridging will mean the
return of mild temperatures. Highs in the 30s are expected on
Saturday and Sunday. An inverted trough looks to nose into the
region on Sunday, and bring the next round of precipitation. Given
the relatively warm temperatures, a wintry mix of rain and snow
could occur.

The start of the upcoming week looks to remain active and
potentially wet as the baroclinic zone associated with the
southwest CONUS trough remains near to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR throughout for most locations. Some MVFR light snow has
developed in southwest Minnesota, and this should lift northeast
overnight night and could affect KRWF, KAXN, KSTC. Later today
expect southerly winds with afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 kts,
which will taper off around sunset.

At this point expect the MVFR snow to remain to the west of KMSP.
If it were to reach the airport, could see a small window of MVFR
visbys, but this should be over by 12Z. Later today expect
southerly winds with afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 kts, which will
taper off around sunset.

Wed...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Thu...MVFR. Chc -SN/IFR. Winds NW 15G20 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.




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