Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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065
FXUS63 KGRB 042049
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
249 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE AREA EXPERIENCED A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE SUNNY SKIES WERE QUICKLY BEING
REPLACED BY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLIPPER IS A
FAST MOVER AND MOISTURE STARVED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF IT.
REGIONAL RADARS WERE SHOWING SOME DECENT RETURNS AND LOWER VSBYS
EARLY TODAY...BUT THOSE HAVE WANED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...UNDER A HALF INCH...IS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WI...THEN MODELS SHOW THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUING AS THE AREA
OF SNOW MOVES EAST...WITH NOT MUCH LEFT ONCE IT REACHES THE
LAKESHORE. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER CENTRAL WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING THEM OFF FARTHER EAST.

ONCE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLEARING THERE WILL BE AND HOW FAR TEMPS WILL DROP. NAM/RAP SHOW
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND. GFS/GEM
ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR. THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE CLIPPER...HOWEVER
THIS AREA HAS FILLED IN SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO STILL
NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON CLOUD TRENDS LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL BRING
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WORK EAST OVER THE AREA...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF FULLY CLEARING OUT BEING OVER EASTERN WI WHERE
SOME DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP GET RID OF THE LOW CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY AGAIN TONIGHT BASED ON WHEN/WHERE THE CLEARING OCCURS.
IF SPOTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI CLEAR OUT...SUB-ZERO
LOWS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON SPREADING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WI. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL
LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM-HIGH WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE FRIDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR
THE CLIPPER ARRIVING ON SUNDAY.  WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE ECMWF.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.  MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS SPLIT
WITH THIS CLIPPER THOUGH. THE STRONGEST WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
OVER ONTARIO...AND A WEAKER WAVE SLIDES OVER SOUTHERN WI.  THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST ON SPREADING LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE SREF AND THE HIGHER RES MODELS DISSIPATE THE PRECIP
AS IT ENTERS EASTERN WI. WITH THE SPLIT ENERGY...CAN SEE A SCENARIO
WHERE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE OVERDONE...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
MESOMODELS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH ACCUMS
REGARDLESS...PERHAPS A HALF INCH OR LESS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY
LINGER ACROSS VILAS COUNTY ON SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE REGION
SHOULD SEE A CLOUDY START FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. A WARM SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NEXT
CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA.  TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
OVER EASTERN WI.  ACCUMS CONTINUE TO LOOK BE RATHER MINOR AGAIN.

REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES START FALLING SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE OCCLUDED CLIPPER.  A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...BUT THE COLDER AIR SHOULD CHANGE ANY LIQUID PRECIP INTO
THE FROZEN VARIETY RATHER QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME ACCUMS ARE LIKELY...BUT THE
SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE...AND IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY OLD
SYSTEM.  SO THINKING THE SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS SUB ADVISORY.
CONTINUED COLD ON WED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
3000-5000 FOOT CLOUD DECK SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST RIGHT BEHIND THE AREA OF CLEARING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP TO
MVFR FOR RHI...CWA...AND AUW AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LIGHT TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY...
DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE...IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACTIVITY. FARTHER
EAST AT GRB...ATW...AND MTW...MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW SPREADS EASTWARD.

CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT AS MODELS NOT ON THE SAME PAGE
ON DEGREE OF CLEARING BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...ARRIVING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM/RAP HOLD ON TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW
CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE THE GEM AND SREF...GFS SHOW
MORE CLEARING. THINKING IS THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI TO GO CLEAR. CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER
OVER EAST CENTRAL WI WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING SHOULD AID IN GETTING
RID OF THE LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WHETHER SKIES CLEAR OUT
OR NOT...CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......BERSCH



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