Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 220412
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1012 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE THURSDAY. NOT CERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL
BE TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME IN THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHCENTRAL. AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING MOST PLACES TO
STAY AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE 2 OR
3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING ON PERCENTAGE OF CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER NOAM
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW OF
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN...SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END
CHANCE POPS GOING BEHIND CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

ONE OF THE CLIPPERS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF POPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH...BUT WILL STICK WHAT I
HAVE FOR NOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH
WISCONSIN AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE
THAN THE FRIDAY SYSTEM SO ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS BRING QPF INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BUT MODEL BLEND DID NOT HAVE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE DAY FEW
DAYS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE
ONLY DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

DRIER AIR THAT WAS OVER FAR NE WI MANAGED TO WORK FARTHER INLAND
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AND THIS HAD ALLOWED CIGS TO BECOME VFR
OVER ERN WI THIS EVENING. SATL IMAGERY INDICATED THAT MORE LOW
CLOUDS WERE SINKING SEWD OVER THE STATE...THUS ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVRNGT AND CONT INTO THU MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES ON THU WITH A
WEAK SFC RDG SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS TRAP THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW AN INVERSION...WHILE OTHERS ALLOW MIXING TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. BASED ON CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM UNDER THE
RDG...STILL BELIEVE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN AROUND MIDDAY
AND CONT THRU THE REST OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE
FCST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADED INTO THU NGT AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS VFR CONDITIONS WOULD PERSIST THRU 06Z FRI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK






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