Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 172254
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
554 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE FOR TONIGHT...AND GUSTY WINDS FOR DOOR COUNTY
AND LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...
AS A COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WAS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...AND EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM
MERRILL/WAUSAU NEWD TO AROUND ESCANABA. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
MPH WERE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF
NC/NE WI.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE
REGION THIS EVG...WITH SOME WEAK LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER NC WI INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN
THE INCOMING COLD AIR AND STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT...
AND THIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW JUST AS THE PCPN IS TAPERING OFF.
WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MIXED RA/SN OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE 30S NORTH...TO LOWER 40S IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS.

GUSTY NNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE REGION...AND CAA CONTINUES. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE DEATHS DOOR AREA IN NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY OVER THE BAY...35 TO 40 KT WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER...AND FUNNELING THROUGH DEATHS DOOR WILL RESULT IN GUSTS
TO 35 TO 45 MPH OVER NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY...AND GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
MARINE ZONES.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE DRY AIR SURGES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF DURING THE DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER
50S ARE ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND THAT WOULD BE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THOUGH THE BEST AGREEMENT LIES WITH
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS.  THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOW A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE SHOULD
WORK FOR THEN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY...BUT
WILL HAVE INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WILL DROP LOW TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.  THETAE ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ALOFT ALONG WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE BELOW 10KFT...WHICH IS MORE OF A PROBLEM OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SHOWS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROVIDES A SECONDARY CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY END MONDAY MORNING...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.  WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING OVER THE PERIOD.  MODELS SHOW A
DECAYING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER...BUT CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CONTINUED QUIET HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END OR DIMINISH TO ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COLD AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAINLY MVFR CIGS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE CIGS TO VFR LEVELS LATER TONIGHT OVER SOME
LOCATIONS AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH






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