Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 161954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
254 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Temperatures are the main concern in the short term. Readings
across the area at 19Z mainly ranged from the mid 50s to around 60
degrees and dew points were in the 30s.

There should be enough of a surface pressure gradient overnight,
with high pressure to the south and a low to the north, to keep
winds up, preventing temperatures from tanking. Warm advection
is expected as flow aloft backs toward the west-southwest. Have
low temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s for tonight.

Few clouds are expected tonight or Tuesday. Continued warm
advection will allow temperatures to warm well above normal, with
highs in the mid to upper 60s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Models continue to forecast upper flow that supports
warm and dry weather through at least Friday. An approaching upper
trough will bring the possibility of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday, but initially dry air and weak surface features makes
the chances small. There is a better chance of showers and storms
Sunday as a weak cold front moves through.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through at least midday on
Tuesday. There will be few clouds but winds will not be as light
as they were overnight into early this morning, so fog should not
be an issue. Models showed some 30 to 40 knot winds at 925 mb
during the night, so have LLWS mentioned at all TAF sites. LLWS is
expected to end from northwest to southeast across the area during
the overnight hours.



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