Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 161159
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AS JET
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY AROUND 15Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
SOUTHWARD MORE RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED GRB SOUNDING
WOULD SUGGEST SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN. THUS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN VERY MINIMAL UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MARGINAL SHEAR EXPECTED...DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. OVERALL EXPECT ONLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN
ABRUPTLY NORTHEAST AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

COULD BE A LINGERING STRATUS OR SC DECK BEHIND THE FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY SOME GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BE RATHER COOL AND FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE
WISCONSIN MICHIGAN BORDER. PARTLY CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ON SUNDAY AS NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DOMINATES. TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKESHORE WHERE READINGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF
THE PCPN LIKELY IN THE WARM RETURN SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. ANTICIPATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
START LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO START WEAKENING MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

A BIT OF A RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. COULD HAVE A DRY
PERIOD TOWARD THURSDAY PRIOR TO GETTING INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE
IN THE WEEK AND LITTLE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES APPEAR NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEK WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR
CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCT IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
RHI AFTER 06Z AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.