Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 042244
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
544 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR THE
LAKE...AND IN THE 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FROST IS LIKELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. CURRENTLY...WE ARE ONLY DOING FROST
HEADLINES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE AT THE
MOMENT. WE WILL NOT BE STARTING FROST HEADLINES FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL GROWING SEASON BEGINS IN EARNEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE.

A SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND BAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READING
WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME OF THE SANDY
SOIL REGIONS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONCERNS ARE MOSTLY WITH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM.
THOUGH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERATING
MINOR AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION. THE 12Z NAM
HAD SOME MINOR CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOO SO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL UPPER
SUPPORT.

CAPE VALUES INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODELS SHOWED
DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SO FIRE WEATHER FOLKS WILL
WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LATER FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AND
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

HAVE LEFT THE INITIAL MODEL BLENDED LONG TERM GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS STARTED TO SHOW
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME PART...OR ALL...OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEPARTS
EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH



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