Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 222229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THUS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NECESSARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EVEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COOL
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. ADDED SOME SPLOTCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 11 TO 12 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A FAST ZONAL FLOW TO EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA. BIGGEST FCST HEADACHE TO BE DURING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. CAN THIS WEAK SYSTEM GENERATE ANY PCPN INTO NE WI? IF
NOT...A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP AS A BROAD UPR RDG TO
ENCOMPASS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THIS TROF REMAINING WELL
TO OUR WEST THRU MON. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHRTWV TROF TO STRETCH FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY S-SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS TUE NGT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND AN UPR RDG OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS INTO CNTRL WI LATE TNGT NGT...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE NGT TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UNDER THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE MAY AGAIN SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SHRTWV TROF EDGES EWD ON WED AND WL BE APPROACHING EXTREME
WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN THE TROF
ITSELF...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHWRS JUST TO OUR WEST.
HAVE KEPT ANY POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER N-CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S LAKESIDE...LWR 70S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

SOME DOUBT HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR WED NGT AS SOME OF THE MDLS
HAVE CHANGED COURSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV
TROF. INITIALLY...THE MDLS SHOWED THIS TROF BEING SHEARED WITH ITS
NRN PART LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...THE SRN PART OF THIS TROF REVERSES COURSE
WITH A S-SW DRIFT. NOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS BRING THE SHRTWV
TROF INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THE
NEW SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA AND
PERHAPS BRING A SPOTTY SHWR OR TWO INTO CNTRL WI WED NGT. HAVE
ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR CNTRL WI...BUT KEPT ERN WI DRY. MIN TEMPS
TO BE UNIFORM WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE
REMAINS OF THE SHRTWV TROF DOES FINALLY WEAKEN ENUF BY THU TO KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN WOULD
BE TOO LGT/ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE FCST. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WL BE TRICKY AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE MAINTAINED
READINGS REACHING THE LWR 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI.

A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MEAN FLOW TO BE UNDERWAY BY FRI AS A DEEP UPR
TROF HITS THE WEST COAST AND UPR RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. SFC HI PRES TO OUR EAST AND THE UPR RDG OVERHEAD SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO NE WI WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI TO BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S WITH ENUF OF
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE
UPR 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPR TROF
HEADED TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND THE BROAD UPR RDG TO ENCOMPASS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S (UPR 60S LAKESIDE) WITH A FEW OF
THE WARMER SITES MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGS.

FCST GETS MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO MON AS THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR RDG. SOME OF THE MDLS WRAP
THE TROF INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS...WHILE
OTHER MDLS WEAKEN THE TROF AND ROTATE IT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...THIS DIFFERENCE WL NOT IMPACT NE WI WEATHER ON MON SO HAVE
GONE WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA...AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SET UP OVER THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY (NC/C WI) LATE TONIGHT...
CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER NC/C WI...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. WILL HAVE VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR AT
CWA/AUW...AND IFR/LIFR AT RHI...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS (BASES 4-5K FT)...AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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