000
FXUS63 KGRB 171044
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
544 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS BY AND UPPER WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES AS AIR ALOFT IS NOT THAT COLD AND CLOUDS
MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES. SUNNY AND COOL
TUESDAY WITH A NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE COOL LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BY THIS POINT...A BLOCKING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL AS OF LATE...AND PREFER TO STICK WITH IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  TUESDAY NIGHT
LOOKS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.  WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL
SEE A SHORTWAVE DIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND DROP A COOL FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.  UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WISCONSIN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY.  WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL COOL INTO THE
50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  CANNOT RULE OUT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT.  MUCH BETTER
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN MODEST SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE REGION...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT IT LOOKS RATHER BRIEF AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN EAST WEST COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT CEILINGS AN VISIBILITIES WILL BE GEN RALLY VFR
WHILE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT AND FOR AWHILE TO THE NORTH. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM