Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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426
FXUS63 KGRB 180933
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
333 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

A cold front continues to slowly track through Wisconsin this
morning. Before it tracks through, another area of precipitation
is slated to track through the southern portion of the cwa this
morning as noted by the regional Doppler Radar imagery. Although
precipitation type will mainly be liquid, some snow could mix in
at times as you head further north. Once this area of more
substantial moisture exits the region, mainly light snow or
drizzle is expected for the rest of the morning into the early
afternoon as this low pressure system exits to the east. Further
north, lake effect snow will begin to develop with the best
chances later this afternoon and into the overnight hours as winds
and delta T values become more favorable. Until the better
moisture arrives up north, some freezing drizzle is possible today
given the colder surface temperatures. Snowfall amounts from this
lake effect snow event should be relatively light, with around an
inch possible in Vilas County through tonight. Highs today will
likely be in the morning or early afternoon, generally in the 30s,
then fall during the afternoon hours as colder air advects in
from the north. Lows tonight should dip down into the middle teens
across the north, with lower to middle 20s across the eastern
cwa.

The lake effect should come to an end later Sunday morning into
the afternoon hours as high pressure builds in across the upper
Mississippi Valley. Highs Sunday should range from the middle 20s
across the north, with around 30 across the eastern cwa.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

A fairly tranquil period expected across the region. The only
chances for precipitation are Tuesday into Tuesday night across
the far north, and then again late next week (Friday).

For Sunday night, mostly clear skies are expected with seasonably
cold temperatures with lows in the teens to middle 20s. On Monday,
much warmer temperatures are expected as the next cold front
approaches from the west. With the lack of snow cover across much
of the area, leaned toward the warmer ECMWF guidance for highs.
The cold front will pass through the area Monday night into
Tuesday morning, bringing blustery or possibly windy conditions
and colder temperatures on Tuesday. Winds do turn to the northwest
for chances of lake effect snow showers across the far north. The
chances will linger through much of Tuesday night, with only a
slight chance of snow showers into Wednesday morning. Wednesday
should see seasonably cold temperatures with warmer temperatures
returning for Thursday and Friday. Friday could end up being very
mild, with temperatures possibly being several degrees warmer than
the current forecast. The next chance of rain/snow will be on
Friday into Friday night.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1051 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A cold front will continue to push east into Lake Michigan
overnight. Light and variable winds will shift to the north-
northwest. Scattered rain showers will gradually become less
numerous overnight followed by areas of drizzle until about
daybreak Saturday. Cigs/vsbys will continue to lower with most
locations in the IFR to LIFR for most of the night. As colder air
overspreads the region after midnight, the light rain and drizzle
is expected to mix with light snow or even some patchy freezing
drizzle across northern and central WI as drier air aloft pushes
in behind the front. The GRB/ATW/MTW TAF sites should remain warm
enough to sustain all rain through the night. Some lingering light
rain or drizzle may carry over into Saturday morning over eastern
WI, but a drying trend will be noted for the rest of the day.
Cigs are forecast to rise to MVFR during the morning and reach VFR
conditions on Saturday afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

North winds will increase behind a departing cold front today then
turn northwest tonight. A few gale force gusts are possible
through this evening before winds slowly diminish later tonight.
Given the brief nature of the Gale force winds, will continue with
a small craft advisory for the nearshore waters through Sunday
when winds are expected to die down below criteria.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......
MARINE.........Kurimski



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