Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 301130
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PICKED UP SOAKING
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER. AT 08Z THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LACROSSE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WEST INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.

A VORT WAS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH AND WILL ROTATE
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WILL NOT BE TO QUICK TO END THE CONVECTION TODAY
AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE INTO THE INITIAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE
PHASING TROUGH SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST.

MEAN RH SUPPORTS CLOUDS TO LINGER TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVER. WITH THE RECENT RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION. THE
FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF CLEARING BECOMES WIDESPREAD
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR REVEAL A
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
BACK NORTH OVER THE STATE. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME MINOR
CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRO A SMALL POP WITH THE FROPA IF THIS TREND IS
CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ZONAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TIMING AMONG MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LIFT ON MONDAY SO THIS LABOR DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
WET ONE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY DRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MODELS VARIED IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ADDING
MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH VERY FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE CONVECTION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...WHICH WILL BE
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARX TO ATW TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY TO AREA OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PICKED UP
A SOAKING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STILL ONGOING AS OF EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH TO 1.50 INCHES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN PORTAGE AND WESTERN WAUPACA
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES JUST
WORKING OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP. STEADY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE OVER. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AT ARX AT 08Z TO NEAR OSH TO MTW AND
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH






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