Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 232327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTWEST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID COMPROMISE WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND HAD MID RANGE
POPS ALREADY BY 18Z. LOOKING AT THUNDER PARAMETERS...NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. DID REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN U.S. AND DRAW
THE SFC LOW NE INTO CANADA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER AT TIMES...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES ANTICIPATED.
AN INCREASING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO MENTION TSTMS AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH


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