Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 102324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
524 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 307 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Surface low moving across northwest Wisconsin will
bring a southerly flow of mild and moist air tonight and continue
to produce low clouds and drizzle tonight. The very cold air of
the last three weeks could allow for some roads and sidewalks to
become slippery tonight even as air temperatures stay above freezing.
Will issue a special weather statement alerting travelers. The low
clouds and fog may produce some air travel delays through early Thursday.

The rain will change to snow from west to east thursday as colder
air arrives behind the front. There should be sufficient moisture
around to allow for several inches of snow across parts of northcentral
Wisconsin. Some sleet or freezing rain is possible for awhile before
the change to snow, though think the precipitation will be largely
rain or snow.

Temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise tonight across the
area, then will fall from west to east during the day Thursday.
Sub freezing temperatures may not reach the lakeshore until evening.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 307 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Forecast concerns revolve around the lingering lake effect snow over
north-central WI on Thursday night followed by the next surge of
Arctic air.

Thursday night through Friday night...As low pressure exits the
region to the northeast, northwest winds will be ushering much
colder Arctic air into the western Great Lakes.  If lake effect
bands can organize Thursday afternoon over western Lake Superior,
then instability/moisture/trajectories are favorable for lake effect
snow showers across the Vilas county snowbelt Thursday evening
before drier air causes a diminishing trend overnight into Friday
morning. Will increase snow amounts for the evening slightly.
Additional amounts of 1-2" appears possible. Elsewhere, light
snowfall and flurries will be ending during the evening.  Then
should see clearing occur from west to east late Thursday night into
Friday morning.  After some sunshine away from the Vilas county snow
belt, mid and high clouds will be on the increase on late Friday
afternoon into Friday night.  However, a significant dry wedge
centered around 800-700mb should prevent any precip.  Temperatures
will be much colder on Friday and Friday night with wind chills
falling into the teens below zero on Friday night.

Rest of the forecast...After high pressure brings mostly sunny and
cold conditions for Saturday, clouds will be on the increase on
Sunday ahead of the next system.  This clipper will bring the next
chance of widespread snow to the region on Sunday night into Monday.
Models project this system with varying strengths. But at the very
least, it appears that a 1-2" snowfall is a reasonable guess,
potentially higher if the stronger model solutions work out. Another
shot of Arctic air then returns heading into midweek.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 524 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Moist air moving north across snow covered ground will result in
low clouds and fog through the TAF period. Ceilings at or below
minimums are possible. Drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible
late tonight, with a period of rain changing to snow Thursday.
Some snow accumulation is possible northwest of a Wisconsin rapids
to Iron Mountain line, with several inches possible north of
Rhinelander. Northwest winds will become gusty behind a cold
front Thursday afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for


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