Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 190548
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WISCONSIN CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS RETURNED TO
MFI/Y50. NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOW CLOUD TRENDS.
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MOSTLY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BELOW ABOUT 2500FT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT SO SURE HOW LONG BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TRENDS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 00Z GUIDANCE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG






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