Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 240841
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
341 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Still hot and humid with some lingering thunderstorms today, then
a slow return to temperatures and humidities more typical of late
July.

The center of an upper anticyclone within the subtropical ridge
will consolidate back over the Desert Southwest during the next
several days. That will allow weak troughing to develop over the
eastern CONUS, and the upper flow across the forecast area to
tilt west-northwesterly.

Hot and humid weather will linger today, then temperatures and
humidities will begin a slow slide back down to more typical
levels. Precipitation amounts are tougher to gauge. After today,
precipitation events will primarily be tied to weak shortwaves in
the west northwest upper flow. So although some precipitation is
likely, amounts will probably be limited. Best guess is that
totals for the week will be AOB normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A cluster of storms at the nose of LLJ was occurring in east-
central Wisconsin early this morning. PWATs AOA 2 inches were in
place across the area, fueling heavy rain at times. Was somewhat
concerned area might back-build toward cluster of storms coming
in from the west. That has yet to happen, but could still occur.
But in the absence of radar trends to the contrary, trended PoPs
back to isolated/scattered in the wake of the cluster.

Linear cluster of storms that produced some severe winds in
eastern Minnesota earlier in the night was moving across northwest
Wisconsin. It is likely to make to at least north-central
Wisconsin before weakening. The storms could pose a marginal risk
of severe wind gusts.

Compared to yesterday, most guidance is a little more supportive
of convective redevelopment later today before the cold front
clears the area. But convergence near the boundary will be limited
as winds above the surface veer to the west. Will maintain 20-40
pct PoP in the east until late afternoon, and will continue to
detail conditional severe threat in the HWO.

Much quieter weather is expected tonight and Monday. It will still
be warm and humid, but core of the heat and oppressive humidity
will be shifting away from the area. Stayed close to a broad-based
blend of guidance products for temperatures tonight and Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Generally flat upper flow across the region gradually becomes more
west-northwest by the end of the week as a trough starts to
amplify over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Short waves in the upper
level flow, along with a surface boundary in the vicinity, yield
plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms during the latter
half of the week. The best chance for showers and storms appears
to be Tuesday night through Thursday as a couple of short waves,
and a cold front, pass through the area.

A slight cooling trend is expected as high temperatures start out
at least a few degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, before
cooling to near or slightly below normal for Thursday through
Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Generally improving flight conditions are expected today, except
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms that redevelop during the
day. The pressure gradient should be sufficient to maintain enough
wind overnight to prevent much if any fog from developing despite
clearing skies and lingering humid air across the area.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Skowronski



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