Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 241149
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
549 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW TRENDS AND AMOUNTS TODAY...AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

THREE DISTINCT S/W TROFS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. THE FIRST
WAS EXITING FAR NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SECOND WAS
APPROACHING FROM NW MN/SW ONTARIO...AND A THIRD WAS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD HAVE THE MOST
DIRECT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
LFQ OF A 110-120 KT JET...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SCT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DEVELOPING COLD NW FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER NC WI...WITH A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL TURN NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. MILDER TEMPS
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 RANGE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER VILAS COUNTY...BUT SHOULD BE HINDERED BY STRONG DOWNWARD
FORCING AND RIDGING FROM THE INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH. USED A BLEND
OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM ZERO TO 5 BLO ZERO IN OUR SE COUNTIES...TO
5 BLO TO 15 BLO ZERO NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS/WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS
TO DROP TO 15 BLO TO 30 BLO ZERO OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NC WI...BUT WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS WERE SHOWING A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BRINGING MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW
ZERO LOWS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE 00Z MODELS KEPT QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z GEM CONTINUED
TO BE THE EXCEPTION...SPREADING QPF ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP THINGS DRY.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WISCONSIN...BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME
MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO THE AREA AS WELL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SNOW. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN BUT BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS
FROM THE 00Z GFS GAVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO GRB AND OSH WITH
LOWER TOTALS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL
SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
AND ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE STEADIER SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING...SCT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN FAR NC WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRISK
SW WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





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