Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 260845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
245 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Cloud cover is the most difficult part of this
forecast. Moisture trapped around 925mb below a subsidence
inversion may be slower to leave than the models suggest,
especially given that there is wet ground or ground covered with
wet snow and unfrozen lakes. Kept skies mostly cloudy today with
temperatures around five degrees above normal. There may be some
clearing from south to north tonight as southerly flow in the
boundary layer increases. SOme areas of fog are possible tonight
in central and northcentral Wisconsin depending on clearing. Lows
tonight will be a few degrees above normal. Sunday should be
partly cloudy and mild, with highs in the 40s in most places.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Forecast concerns revolve around impacts from a slow moving upper
low which is projected to move across the region during most of the
next work week.  Will continue to put more weight into the ecmwf
solution based on comparisons to the ensemble means.

Sunday night through Monday night...As low pressure occludes across
the northern Plains on Sunday night, an arcing band of rain will be
lifting northeast across the northern Mississippi Valley and western
Great Lakes.  This band of rain looks to decay a little as it moves
northward, but should arrive late in the evening or overnight
depending on the location.  Some breaks in the precip will likely
occur on Monday when dry slotting temporarily shifts overhead.
Precip could become more showery or drizzley when this occurs. Then
a secondary band of rain is expected to redevelop along the cold
front and lift north across the region later Monday afternoon into
Monday night.  Throughout this period, temps looks too warm for any
kind of frozen precip, and may even rise on Monday evening before
the cold front arrives.

Rest of the forecast...Once the cold front exits, precip will become
confined to the large area of deeper moisture beneath the upper low.
This will place the better chances of precip west of the Fox Valley
and Bayshore.  Colder air aloft will be arriving by this time, so
will likely see some snow mixing in with rain at times over central
and north-central WI, especially at night.  Not expecting any
significant accums at this time though.  On and off rain and snow
showers will continue through the rest of the week with the upper
low overhead.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Mainly mvfr conditions overnight into Saturday morning. Areas of
IFR cigs with patchy MVFR vsbys due to fog may develop overnight
across mainly North Central Wisconsin and Central Wisconsin. A
ridge of high pressure building into the area later Saturday may
attempt to improve conditions to a higher end MVFR or lower end
VFR conditions Saturday afternoon.



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