Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 101051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

AT 08Z...BANDS OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM UPPER MICHIGAN TO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS WERE
MAINLY BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
STATE THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POST FRONTAL DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES BUT MAINLY DUE TO LIFT DUE
TO THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER JET SUPPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FROPA SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION. SOME THUNDER NOTED AROUND THE DLH AREA LATE WED
EVENING AND WILL NOT RULE IT OUT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL WI AS THE H850 WARM PROD SLIDES OVER. HOWEVER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED
WHILE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW SLIDES OVER THE STATE. COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. BUT WILL KEEP
THE ISOLD AFTERNOON TSRA MENTION GOING DUE TO MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES. THE DAY SHIFT
CAN REEVALUATE THE TSRA POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. FLOW ALOFT STARTS OUT ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND AMPLIFIES
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
PASSING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AS GULF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE STATE...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW...AND MID LEVELS DESTABILIZE. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF DID NOT SHOW MUCH QPF IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO NOT AS CERTAIN THERE WILL BE MUCH GOING ON THERE BUT
HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS CONFINED
TO THE EAST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WERE MAINLY FALLING FROM A LOWER
VFR CIG AT 5000 FEET AGL...BUT ISOLATED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
FROPA PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
VFR CONDITIONS REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND LLWS CONDITIONS WILL ALSO WANE THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY TURN
BRIEFLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

RIVERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THE RATHER DRY SPRING...THE LATE MELT OF THE SNOW PACK
AND LINGERING FROST DEPTH...RIVER LEVELS OVERALL ARE BEHAVING.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES AND WOLF RIVER AS WELL AS PESHTIGO AND OCONTO
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND FS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHIOCTON IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WARNING LATER THIS WEEK. SYSTEM FOR THIS
WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THESE
BASINS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO ALL
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE RAINFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE
COMING DAYS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH






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