Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 181806

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
106 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Clear skies and cool temps at the onset this morning. Will let
the frost and freeze headlines run its course to daybreak.
Otherwise the stretch of dry but cool to moderating temperatures
to continue this week.

Boundary layer high pressure will remain settled over the region
through at least Thursday. H850 temperatures will gradually rise
today into Thursday to near normal levels. With warm air return
from the west or northwest...warmest readings may be felt across
North Central Wisconsin on Thursday. Light winds will support the
cooler readings along Lake Michigan. Should note that the GFS
model continues to produce light precipitation amounts Thursday
afternoon. Likely due to increased surface dewpoints and weak
upper low pressure. Will add a little more diurnal clouds Thursday
afternoon...otherwise will let dry conditions to continue with
dominate high pressure.

Guidance temperatures have been running a bit high with overnight
lows due to dry air mass in place. Possible another frost
advisory will be needed tonight across parts of North Central and
far Northeast Wisconsin...but the threat is decreasing with the
moderating temperatures. Day crew can check out latest conditions.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

A mid level ridge is expected to amplify over the plains late in
the week and push east to the Great Lakes Region by the end of the
weekend. Some weak mid level short wave energy will push across
Wisconsin ahead of the ridge but dry air and surface high pressure
should keep the area dry. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms looks to be Monday night into Tuesday as the ridge
axis moves east of Wisconsin and moisture increases ahead of an
approaching cold front. Temperatures will be near normal for the
end of the work week and warm up a bit for the weekend and early
next week.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours as a
ridge of high pressure is forecast to reside over the Great Lakes
region. Daytime cu field with bases at 7-8K ft this afternoon,
will develop again on Thursday. Winds to remain light and variable
through tonight, then become more S-SW on Thursday as the ridge
slips a bit farther east. Exception to these winds will be at MTW
where lake breeze would shift the winds to the SE.



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