Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 102005
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
205 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Lake effect snow continues to push west over the lakeshore
counties this afternoon as it breaks apart. A dusting or up to an
inch of accumulation is possible from these snow bands, mainly
across Kewaunee and northern Manitowoc counties near the
lakeshore. These bands are expected to dissipate as they move
inland away from the moisture afforded by the lake and winds
change to a less favorable direction.

Attention then turns to an upper trough approaching the western
Great Lakes later tonight into Saturday. Although the mid level
dynamics are fairly modest, isentropic lift is fairly strong as
winds are almost perpendicular to the isentropic surface at 280
and 285K surfaces. Moisture should be deep enough for mainly snow
for most of the event, however as moisture gets scoured out in the
mid levels with the forcing shifting from north to south some
freezing drizzle is possible across north-central Wisconsin late
tonight into Saturday and across central Wisconsin on Saturday.
Given snowfall is expected before the freezing drizzle and the
freezing drizzle itself is expected to mainly occur during the
daytime hours the impact from this precipitation type is expected
to be minimal. Snowfall totals tonight and Saturday from this
snowfall event are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches across
north-central Wisconsin, to 1 to 2 inches across central, with a
few tenths or up to an inch across east-central Wisconsin.

Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper teens across the
north, with lower to middle 20s across the south. Highs Saturday
are expected to be in the upper 20s to around 30 across the north,
with around 30 in central and lower to middle 30s across east-
central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Timing systems every 3 days or so in the northern stream flow
will be the primary issue.

A short wave and frontal system will depart the region Saturday
night to end the mixed precipitation across the area. H850 temps
would suggest mainly snow showers, but a mix possible in the
evening over east central Wisconsin before ending from west to
east.

Upper ridge and surface high then builds into the Northern Plains
and Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday for a dry and moderating
trend. The warm air advection turns more robust Monday night into
Tuesday with increasing and blustery south to southwest winds.
Arrival of the showers will depend on the rate of saturating the
air mass into Tuesday. In addition, the dry and cold air mass
initially may produce a mix at the onset before turning to rain
showers. Otherwise progs focusing the next chance for measurable
precipitation with the next northern stream short wave trough and
weak cold front passage toward the Tuesday night period.

After another high pressure system quickly drifts over Wednesday
into Thursday for return to drier conditions. Medium range progs
divert greatly on solutions late next week into the following
weekend with confidence in most parameters greatly dropping.

After a cold weekend...next weeks temps expected to rebound back
to closer to normal levels in the 40s.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Lake effect snow showers continue to slowly diminish as they head
west late this morning. The showers will mainly affect the MTW TAF
site as they diminish during the afternoon hours. Further west the
showers should diminish before they reach the GRB and ATW TAF
sites. Mainly VFR conditions are expected, with MVFR at times in
the snow showers.

Clouds and light snow will move into central and northcentral
Wisconsin late tonight ahead of an upper level disturbance. Light
snow is expected across the entire region Saturday, though it
could be mixed with rain near Lake Michigan and end as freezing
drizzle across the north Saturday afternoon. Snow amounts should
be an inch or two.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......Kurimski



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