Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 241123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
623 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

1030 MB surface high centered over Minnesota will move east into
Wisconsin today and bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures. Clouds are most likely in northcentral Wisconsin
through midday as temperatures aloft are cold enough for some lake
effect clouds.

Clear skies and light winds are expected much of the night, though
high clouds will increase towards daybreak. Lows tonight should
be close to their seasonal normals.

Tuesday will have sunshine fading behind increasing clouds ahead
of the upper trough approaching from the central Plains. Some
light rain could make it into our far southwest counties by dusk.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

West-northwest flow at 500mb will continue into next weekend as a
500mb ridge remains entrenched across the southern plains into the
southwestern United States. The main storm is still expected to
move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Low
pressure across the central plains Tuesday evening will move east
to the western Great Lakes region Wednesday night. This system is
expected to pass well south of the area.

Rain is expected to move into the southwest half of Wisconsin
Tuesday evening. There will be a slow eastward progression of the
rain as a 1036mb high gradually shifts eastward. The rain should
make it to northeast to a Rhinelander to Manitowoc line by sunrise
on Wednesday. The rain will then overspread the remainder of the
region Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
likely south of a Wausau to Sturgeon Bay line with lighter amounts
to the north. The rain will gradually taper off and end late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Cyclonic flow aloft and
daytime heating may trigger a few more showers across northern
Wisconsin Thursday afternoon.

Models have come into better agreement that there will be rain
around Friday. However, significant differences in the details of
the system moving through the mean flow to keep rain chances in
the chance category at this time. As we get closer to the event,
it is possible we may need to raise rain chances into the likely
category. A few light rain showers are possible Saturday morning
across northern Wisconsin. Dry conditions should prevail next

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Some lake effect clouds with bases between 2000 and 3000 ft are
possible this morning across far northern Wisconsin and the Door
Peninsula. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today through
Tuesday. A storm system will bring rain and IFR conditions Tuesday
night and Wednesday. &&



LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......RDM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.