Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 021119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
519 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 319 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

A continued feed of moisture off the Great Lakes and cyclonic flow
from a broad upper level low will keep skies mostly cloudy through
Saturday with very little diurnal variability between highs and
lows. In addition deeper moisture across the north will keep the
chance for snow showers across portions of north central
Wisconsin, particularly Vilas County through tonight.

Despite cool surface temperatures and expansive cloud cover there
have been some reports of freezing drizzle across north central
Wisconsin early this morning given the fairly shallow layer of
moisture in place. Given the model soundings indicate this
moisture will remain shallow today and tonight, will put in
freezing drizzle in addition to snow showers across north central
Wisconsin during these periods. Any snowfall accumulations will be
fairly light during this period.

By Saturday some shortwave ridging will end the lake effect snow
showers as winds turn westerly. However abundant moisture will
maintain the cloud cover across the region.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 319 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Precipitation chances are the main concern during this part of the

A mid level trough, in low amplitude flow across the northern
CONUS, and a weak surface boundary passing through Wisconsin will
bring snow to the area on Sunday. The snow is expected to change
to a wintry mix from the Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan as
temperatures warm during the afternoon. Parts of central Wisconsin
could pick up an inch or two of accumulation before a weak upper
ridge and surface high bring dry weather back to the forecast
area from the late night hours on Sunday night through Monday

An upper trough is forecast to dig in across the western CONUS
early next week. As it does, a closed upper cyclone that was in
northern Mexico is expected to eject toward the Ohio Valley. A
surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico will approach Wisconsin
early in the week and pass southeast of the state. This feature
and a cold front approaching from the Plains will bring
precipitation chances to the forecast area starting on Tuesday.
Rain or a wintry mix is expected across the east, with snow or a
wintry mix farther to the west. Expect a change to all snow
Tuesday night.

There are still significant differences among the model solutions
for the rest of the forecast period, so the initial blend was
kept. This resulted in at least a chance for snow, with snow
likely in north central Wisconsin, by Wednesday afternoon. PoPs
eventually decrease across the area during the day on Thursday.

Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday
night. After that, highs should be near or below normal on
Wednesday and Thursday with lows a little warmer than normal on
Wednesday night.

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 519 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

An upper-level low pressure system will continue to pull east of
the region today but will still be close enough to produce a
range of mainly mvfr clouds over north central Wisconsin to lower
end VFR cigs over east central Wisconsin. Little improvement
expected into tonight.



SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.