Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 170013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE AREA HAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NORTH OF RHINELANDER WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRPORTS IN VILAS COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VIS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT VFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG





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