Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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943
FXUS63 KGRB 020506
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1106 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR WINTER
STORM ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE A TAD BIT LATER TO START...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CURRENT START TIMES OF THE WARNINGS.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VILAS
COUNTY WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE COMBO
OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY UNTIL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL IMPACT SNOW TOTALS. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE (NEAR THE
LAKESHORE). THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO
ALL SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION ON THE MODELS...SO DID NOT EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IF THIS FEATURE STILL HOLDS TRUE ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN...MAY NEED
TO EXTEND THE WARNING IN THIS REGION. DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE MIXING TAKING PLACE IN THIS REGION.
RAISED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO COMBO
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION...MAYBE A
LIGHT DUSTING OR SO DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WHICH LOOKS
MEAGER AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF IT AS A PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
MEAGER MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW TO
THE REGION...IT BEARS WATCHING AS TIMING COULD PLAY A ROLE ON THE
IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOCAL GROUND FOG. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ARRIVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
COULD BE AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS. 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ010>013-018>022-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



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