Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 180350
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1050 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

Clear skies and light winds will once again lead to very cold
temperatures across the area tonight and into early wednesday
morning. temperatures last night fell well below forecast lows
across the area. with similar conditions and most guidance numbers
quite low, especially across north-central Wisconsin, will expand
the current Frost Advisory to cover east central Wisconsin save
for Door County which is surrounded by water and should remain
above criteria. Even if portions of Door County fall to criteria
it should only be for a very short period of time. In addition,
with colder than expected lows across north-central Wisconsin will
upgrade these areas to a Freeze Warning as lows in the middle to
upper 20s are once again likely.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface
high pressure centered from South Dakota to Lake Superior early this
afternoon.  After a mostly clear morning...fair weather cu developed
around midday mainly away from the Lake and Bay.  As the surface
high becomes centered over Wisconsin tonight...forecast concerns
revolve around low temperatures and frost/freeze headlines.

Tonight...High pressure will become centered across the state
tonight. Once diurnal cu dissipates early this evening...should have
nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions for the rest of the
night...with clear skies and light winds.  Low temps last night were
a couple degrees colder than anticipated...so populated the forecast
with the coolest guidance...then took a degree or two off that.  The
result is lows in the upper 20s north to mid 30s over the southern
Fox Valley.  After coordination with surrounding offices...will
issue a frost advisory for locations north and west of the Fox
Valley.

Wednesday...The same surface high remains in place...leading to
pleasant Spring weather.  Low level temps will continue to moderate
closer to normal.  So highs should range from the mid to upper 60s
for most locations except cooler for the Lakeshore counties.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

weak upper ridging expected across the region
wednesdaynight through thursday night with a surface high
centered right over the great lakes. weak upper troughs swing by
to our north and south friday but then the upper ridge builds
again and strengthens. not much chance of rain until upper flow
becomes southwest after ridge axis moves east of the area
monday.temperatures slowly warming to typical levels by thursday
and above normal by the end of the week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

VFR conditions and light surface winds are expected until further
notice...probably until sometime next week.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Wednesday FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-
019-021.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kurimski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kurimski



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