Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 292318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
618 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Showers, and possibly a couple of thunderstorms, continued to make
their way across the forecast area as a mid level trough and a
cold front pushed east of Wisconsin. Models showed some mid level
short wave energy passing through the state during the evening,
but it looks like it will be far enough to the south to keep any
rain associated with it out of this area. Surface high pressure
and an upstream mid level ridge should keep the rest of the night
and Memorial Day dry. There could be some fog during the night as
clouds dissipate and winds weaken. Heavier rain across central and
north central Wisconsin the past 24 hours make those areas the
more likely spots for any fog formation.

Blended the previous forecast temperatures with a couple of the
better performing guidance sets. Looks like warmer than normal
temperatures but less humid for Memorial Day.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A quiet night expected for much of Monday night as a weak ridge
passes eastward. Return flow on the backside will increase clouds
overnight with progs persistent with convection possibly making
back into central Wisconsin toward Tuesday morning.

Precipitation chances will continue to be on the increase tuesday
into Tuesday night as an 850 mb and surface front slowly work
across the state from west to east. Pwats climb back into the
1.50 inch range by Tuesday evening while the rrq region of the
upper jet drifts into the state from the west. Combination of
increasingly moist unstable air mass with some forcing could lead
to some strong to severe storms. But more than likely with the
slowly frontal movement and plume of moisture working into the
area...a period of heavy rain possible from tuesday into wednesday.

Progs fairly similar with timing the surface front departing east
of the area late Wednesday afternoon or evening to start a trend
to diminish the convection.

The Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes region returns to
more of a upper northwest flow pattern...with a trend toward
slightly cooler and drier conditions. Will continue the chance
for afternoon diurnal showers Thursday due to the cyclonic flow

The northwest flow turns more noisy next weekend with a few short
waves sliding southeast over the area. The primary system appears
toward saturday into saturday night with both the GFS and ECMWF
very similar with an 850 trough tracking through the area.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Lingering showers should end this evening as the atmosphere
stabilizes and drier air works in from the west. Main aviation
forecast concern is fog potential. West winds and the arrival of
drier air will work against fog, but lingering surface moisture
from recent rains and diminishing winds near surface high will be
favorable. Will limit fog to just central and north-central
Wisconsin at this point and reassess later tonight.



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