Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 011151
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAINLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ALSO WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH FOG SPREADS OVER
THE AREA. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY BE APPROACHED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS 2000 WINDS APPROACH 35 KTS.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH
MARINE.........ECKBERG






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