Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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604
FXUS63 KGRR 132028
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR COLDEST
WEATHER OF THE MONTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OF MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE MONTH. WITH
THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH...THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA IS FOR THE MOST PART A
WARM FRONT TYPE SYSTEM. SNOW SHOULD FALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR FREEZING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

I EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AROUND 3 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS DRY AIR MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CROSSING OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST LATER
TONIGHT A LAND BREEZE WILL SET UP HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RATHER COMPLEX IS RELATED TO A STRONGLY DIGGING
JET CORE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM HEADING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY MONDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL HELP LIFT THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET NORTH
AND BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD AIR WE HAVE AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY WITH RATHER DEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER OUR REGION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF
OUR AREA.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER
AIR BRIEFLY MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN TO BRING TRANQUIL WX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MILDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE
TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY IN NW FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KMKG AND KAZO WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY IFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
REMAIN VFR THRU 18Z SUN. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WILL THE WAVE HEIGHTS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. I WILL LET THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AS IT IS FORECAST TO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE FORMATION. A CONFIRMED ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ALONG THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK PARK...CAUSING THE RIVER TO RISE THERE. THE ICE IS
JAMMING AT NORTH PARK BRIDGE. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS WELL AS THICKNESS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER ICE JAMS OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVER LEVEL
TRENDS CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD HALT ICE
FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM



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