Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 172016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW
FALLING.  THIS HAPPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING/CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL PERK UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD GET GOING
AROUND 21Z WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. THE FLOW FAVORS
AZO HAVING THE MOST IMPACT...BUT MKG...GRR...AND BTL WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY AROUND 03Z
WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LET UP AND A RETURN TO MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK...GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






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