Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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531
FXUS63 KGRR 060826
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY BUT A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE RELATIVELY BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW OF
THOSE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE TROF AXIS UP TOWARD LDM AND NORTH OF KRQB AND KMOP. ANY SNOW
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE AND REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY
DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTH TO SW FLOW WAA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS.

THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ANY MIXED PCPN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AT GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS.

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL TIME HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. A
DRY SLOT FURTHER EAST MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL OVER OUR EASTERN FCST
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR UNTIL MONDAY (15TH) WHEN A WARM UP
STARTS. WE GET TWO SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR THIS COMING WEEK. THE FIRST
ONE COME IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY... THEN AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE FOLLOWS A MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY. THE EVENT THAT
FOLLOWS THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DRAINS MOST OF THE REALLY COLD AIR OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS PART OF WHY IT WARMS UP AFTER THAT.

SO OF COURSE THERE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. I PUT NEAR CONDITIONAL POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
INTO THURSDAY.  FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT WINDS ARE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST.... SO WESTERN MASON...WESTERN OCEANIA...WESTERN
OTTAWA..WESTERN ALLEGAN AND WESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTIES WOULD GET THE
MOST SNOW FROM THIS EVENT (MON NIGHT INTO THU).  I WOULD EXPECT AS
WE GET INTO WED AND MORE SO THU WE WILL SEE A I-94 BAND SET
UP...BRINGING THE SNOW SHOWERS EAST TO JACKSON. SINCE DGZ GETS CLOSE
TO THE GROUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... I WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY SMALL
SNOWFLAKES SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE REALLY HIGH IN ANY ONE SIX
HOUR PERIOD...BUT OVER THE TIME FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT I
COULD SEE CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FALLING IN THE LOCATIONS OVER
WESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY.  THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
DEEP WITH ONLY A MINIMAL INVERSION TUE INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THAT
WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES. HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE LAKE BEING WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL HAVE. INLAND OF US-
131 AND NORTH OF I-94 I WOULD EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW TO FALL UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT/ CLIPPER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. EVEN THEN I AM THINKING AN
INCH OR TWO.

AS FOR THE LONGWAVE PATTERN... THOSE TWO EAST ASIAN JET CORES (180+
KTS) HELP THE CAUSE OF BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDE AND MAINTAINING THE
COLD WEATHER THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER AFTER THAT YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM FROM RUSSIAN ARCTIC HEADS EAST AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE... WHICH IS ALSO WHY IT
WILL WARM UP BY MONDAY THE 15TH.

SO MY BOTTOM LINE IS COLD AND SNOWY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE THIS WEEK...
COLD BUT NOT SNOWY EAST OF US-131 AND NORTH OF I-94 UNTIL SOME SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR STILL AROUND...BUT THINKING
WE WILL MAINLY BE VFR INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z
ON SATURDAY...THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD BACK IN FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL ON SATURDAY...BUT
MAINLY EXPECTING FLURRIES AND NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST RIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOUTH TO SW WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS ARE THE
ONLY RIVERS CURRENTLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS. BOTH ARE AT OR NEAR
THEIR CRESTS AND WILL SLOWLY RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK. NO OTHER
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED BANKFULL AT THIS TIME. MOST RIVER
CHANNELS ARE FREE OF ICE... BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK MAY
LEAD TO ICE REDEVELOPMENT AND THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...LAURENS



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