Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERTURES NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. IT HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK NOW WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SO
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THAT SAID THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH DOES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... TRACKING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KTS GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FROPA AS MU CAPE PROGS SHOW NEAR 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF
GRR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS AROUND JXN BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE
LAKESHORE SHOULD BE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN INLAND AREAS AGAIN WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD COOL THE BEACHES A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR A DELAY IN
SOLID PCPN CHCS TO SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI IS NOT ZERO...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK FRONT
DOES LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ON THE AREA. THE ISSUE
WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE UPPER ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE W/NW. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHCS BEING
DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SAT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA NOW WITH THE WEAK FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND
THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS DROP ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SUN AND MON DO CONTINUE TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
CHCS FOR RAIN EACH OF THE DAYS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHC THAT WE
WILL SEE WAVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE PCPN CHCS A BOOST. IN
ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH BETTER WIND FIELDS ALOFT HELPING SHEAR
VALUES...AND SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE WAVES. PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS THROUGH 06Z WED. THE ONLY THING OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY BTL
AND KJXN. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME FOG WAS
EXPERIENCED THERE. ALSO...KBTL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 7SM AS OF 0530Z.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL
RULE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT KMKG IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TUE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD WAVES... BUT PROBABLY ONLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET NORTH
OF HOLLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 2
TO 4 FOOTERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE


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