Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 010720
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
LEADING UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...THUS A LOCAL THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR.
MORNING FOG IS FORECASTED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE FOG AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
LOCAL. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL COOLING OFF AND THE FOG COULD STILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WE DO HAVE SOME WIND UP AROUND 2K FT WHICH
MAY BE DELAYING/LIMITING THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT AND MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THIS AM.

A SMALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE DOES BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...BUT A WARM LAYER ALOFT IS
SEEN IN THE SOUNDINGS. SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
WARM. THERE WERE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SOUTH OF THE MI
BORDER. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS. WILL
HOLD ONTO LOW POPS FOR MOST PERIODS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DAILY WILL REACH THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD AND FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MIXED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCALLY DENSER FOG.

PATCHY FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY ACT TO KEEP WAVES ON
THE LOW SIDE. SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK TO
MARINERS.

RE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY. THUS WITH
A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT..THE RISK TO SEE ONE OF THESE
STORMS IS LOW.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS



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