Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS BRINGING THE
COLDEST WEATHER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN HAS SEEN SINCE THE FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD
AIR COMES IN. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM COMES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SUNDAY. AN OVERALL MILDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN STORY IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS COMING THROUGH THE AREA AS I WRITE THIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE MID 20S OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA (AS OF 2 PM). TYPICALLY WE
WOULD GET SNOW SHOWERS WITH AN EVENT LIKE THIS BUT IN THIS CASE
WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT AT LOW LEVELS. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LIMITED AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO LIMITED. THIS RESULTS IN SHALLOW CLOUDS
WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR SNOW BANDS. SO FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL
SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW FLURRIES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD AIR STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST SATURDAY BUT WE REMAIN ON
THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE POLAR JET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SO
TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. SINCE THE COLD
ADVECTION ENDS BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SLOW WARMING SHOULD CLEAR
ANY CLOUDS OUT OF THE WAY SO WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM
BEING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE/LL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TOWARD MID WEEK. HOWEVER...WINTER MAY NOT BE QUITE DONE YET.
IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER BOTH SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL
FALL SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER AND WOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON TOO INTO THE EVENING. THE GFS MIXES WITH
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD 40. WE MODIFIED THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND KEPT THE MIX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WE HAVE ACCUMS AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER...IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD END UP AS A 1-3 INCH EVENT...DEPENDING ON
TIMING AND QPF.

ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE MIXED
PCPN. A STRONGER SYSTEM OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
STATES MIDWEEK AS FLOW BECOMES QUASI ZONAL. THIS WARMER PATTERN WILL
MEAN SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD THE THE
NORTH TONIGHT SOME OF THE STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEEK
AHEAD... THE FALLING TREND SHOULD INCREASE AND RIVER LEVELS SHOULD
BE LOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63






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