Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 291928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL BE FROM NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. ANOTHER STORM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD
THIS WAY FOR SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG EAST
WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS AND FINALLY RAIN... THAT MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY
INTO MONDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THERE ARE TWO MAIN ISSUES AS I SEE IT... THE RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR THEN HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL FALL SATURDAY NIGHT?

AS FOR THE FROST/FREEZE ISSUE TONIGHT SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING
AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN SHIELD MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO TRYING
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THIS AREA...FARTHER HELPING THAT CAUSE. DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS AND WILL FALL INTO THE 20S NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS THIS
EVENING AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED IN ON EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS. WHAT SHOULD HELP PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS THE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT. THAT MIXING WILL HELP KEEP THE
AIR NEAR THE GROUND MIXED SO TEMPERATURES CAN NOT FALL AS THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FINALLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WITH IT`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
BRINGS THE RAIN IN. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SHOULD
SEE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS ANOTHER ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVENT. ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN..BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE THE
LEAST AMOUNT.

A WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE SOME CLEARLY FINALLY OCCURS.

$$

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH ONLY ONE DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

WE SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.  H8 TEMPS VARY FROM 0C TO
+5C...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG SWINGS IN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND
LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96 EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONLY DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS
THROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL GULF MOISTURE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
JUST YET HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK FOR MORE QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE REGION WAS STILL SEEING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CEILINGS WERE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR. DRIER AIR WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP LIFT ALL CEILINGS TO
VFR BY 19-20Z. EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WON/T LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS
INTO TONIGHT...WE STILL EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY
SATURDAY MORNING 11-14Z...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING ON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS AN OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH AS ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. MVFR WILL POSSIBLY
DEVELOP ALONG I-94 INTO THE MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME IFR
COULD BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR WIND SPEED SATURDAY
NIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM IS A TOUCH STRONG THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS SHOULD FROM THE EAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM


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