Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 142353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
653 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017


Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

A big storm over eastern New Mexico will begin to move east tonight
and cross southern Lake Michigan Tuesday morning. We`ll see some
light snow, then some freezing rain and finally rain as the system
progresses beginning Monday night and continuing Tuesday.
Temperatures will be mild next week with highs mostly in the 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Forecast concerns deal with the pcpn potential and type Monday.

The big storm producing the ice headlines across the Missouri and
Ohio Valleys is still in New Mexico but will begin moving northeast
tonight. It is progd to cross southern Lake Michigan Tuesday morning.

Skies will be clear tonight and mostly sunny Sunday and then clouds
will start to increase as the low makes progress to the northeast.
Model trends have delayed the onset of light pcpn until Monday.
Soundings would suggest that pcpn will begin as a narrow band of
light snow then turning to some light freezing rain, sleet, and then
rain. Pcpn will move from southwest to northeast. So, the northeast
cwa may see a prolonged period of freezing rain, sleet, and snow and
rain for much of Monday. It`s possible a headline may be needed
for a portion of the cwa Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

The long term looks mild by mid January standards, with mainly rain
in the forecast. A low will traverse the area on Tuesday with rain
expected during the day. There is a bit of cool air in its wake,
which may bring a rain/snow mix Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, but this would be light and short lived.

A break in the precipitation is expected Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday night. The GFS and the ECMWF differ in the evolution of the
next low with the GFS being faster. The GFS would bring rain back in
on Friday with the ECMWF holding off until on Saturday. We continue
to be mild late in the week so any precipitation would fall in the
form of rain. Overall confidence is low in the fine details late in
the week, but fairly high in the fact that we will be mild.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 653 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Still thinking VFR conditions are highly likely through Sunday
afternoon with winds under 10 knots. Any ceilings would be early
tonight above 10000 ft AGL.

As noted previously, there could be a scattered layer of clouds
off Lake Michigan. Local aircraft soundings suggest these could
get trapped a little lower with bases near 2000ft AGL. This is
not highly certain, and brief excursions into fuel alternate CIGS
below 2000ft at a few terminals, while possible, remain very


Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

fairly quiet weather is expected as high pressure will produce light
winds and low wave heights.


Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Rivers are running above normal across the area due to rain, melted
snow and ice jams. The Grand River at Robinson Township has an
active warning for minor flooding. Multiple sites also have active
advisories. A period of colder than normal temperatures through the
weekend may allow river ice to thicken. Next week looks warmer than
normal with highs possibly reaching the 50s. This could melt the
river ice and allow the rivers to flush out.




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