Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 181754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
154 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017


Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Weak high pressure will bring fair weather today but a few showers
are possible tonight as a warm front approaches lower Michigan.
Dry and warmer than normal weather is expected the rest of the


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

A few showers will linger across the eastern zones this morning as
weak cold front pushes east. Surface ridging builds in this
afternoon but that is transient as warm advection intensifies
overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected across at
least the southern zones where strongest area of isentropic ascent
will be overnight.

Any showers should be winding down Tuesday as upper heights rise
and general subsidence and drying occurs...with ridging through
Wednesday suppressing chance for precipitation. Cannot rule out a
few showers in continued warm advection but left them out of the
forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Summer-like weather will continue through the weekend.

The upper ridge over the eastern US will amplify during the latter
half of the week. South flow off the Gulf will bring moisture
northward and dewpoints across southern Lower Michigan will climb
into the lower to mid 60s. Humid conditions will develop and
continue through the weekend. Highs in the mid 80s are expected.

Our best chance of rain will probably come Wednesday night when a
weak cold front will wash out over Lake Michigan; the northwest cwa
will see scattered showers/storms Wednesday night. After that,
isolated storms at best through the weekend.

Abnormally dry conditions will only get worse by next weekend due to
a lack of appreciable rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Stratus and fog this morning have finally lifted for the most
part. KBTL and KLAN still have MVFR ceilings at 130pm, but these
should lift to VFR very soon, with VFR weather expected the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. MVFR and even IFR ceilings
will redevelop overnight from KAZO to KLAN and points to the
south and east. A few showers are possible late tonight into
Tuesday morning and covered this threat with VCSH wording. The
MVFR ceilings will likely persist for KAZO, KBTL, KLAN and KJXN
through the morning hours on Tuesday


Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Winds and waves will be relatively light through the middle of the
week. No strong storms are expected although there could be an
isolated thunderstorm tonight.


Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

A quick hit of rainfall is possible this afternoon and evening along
a cold front as it pushes west to east. We could see up to a couple
of tenths of an inch, especially in or near thunderstorms. Another
round of precipitation is expected to move through Monday night into
Tuesday, dropping another couple tenths of an inch.

Overall, given recent dry weather, these amounts are not expected to
have much of an impact. Abnormally dry areas may only see little
relief before conditions trend toward the dry side beyond Tuesday.
Limited chances exist for precipitation through the week with
temperatures that will be above normal. There continue to be no
hydro concerns at this time.




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