Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 312329
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
729 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE THE WEATHER IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER A FEW
DAMP AND GLOOMY DAYS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE SINCE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK. SOME FROST WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL ASIDE FROM
THE FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING.

RAIN HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE
WILL ONLY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

REGARDING THE FROST ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING...WE WILL
BE KEEPING IT AS IS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING...DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN...AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
MARGINAL EVENT AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS FROM
BEING EVEN MORE OF A FROST AND EVEN A FREEZE ISSUE. SOME NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS LIKE BALDWIN AND LEOTA MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPS. THIS
SHOULD REMAIN LOCAL ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A FREEZE
WARNING.

MON NIGHT/TUE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ANOTHER FROST POTENTIAL AS
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. IT MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER
OF A CHANCE AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN MORE. WE WILL
EVALUATE THAT CHC MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KEEP ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR MON NIGHT/TUE FOR AFTER THE EVENT TONIGHT TO
KEEP THINGS SIMPLE.

OTHERWISE...THE FCST AREA WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH ON MON...AND THEN WE
WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE BEYOND THAT. THAT WILL BRING PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE...AND INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE GENERALLY LESS THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.   A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...LIFT AND MOISTURE. SO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
POPS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.

AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS WE GO INTO
SUNDAY.  SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY.  THIS COULD
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS FROM 1700 TO 2100
FEET AGL...WAS ALIGNED FROM LAN TO AZO AT 23Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING. AZO...BTL AND LAN SHOULD CLEAROUT
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JXN HOLDING ON TO THE CLOUDS UNTIL AROUND
02Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE EVENING AND THROUGH
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WE ARE DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS HEADLINES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH THE FCST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BUOYS ARE NOW BELOW 20 KNOTS...AND
WAVES AT THE BUOYS ARE BELOW 4 FEET WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE FAIRLY TAME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE AS
THE HIGH IS BUILDING IN TOMORROW. SOME SMALLER SCALE HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORE...HOWEVER WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GENERALLY 1-3 INCH RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN THE UPPER
KALAMAZOO AND GRAND RIVER BASINS... AND AN ISOLATED 4-6 IN
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY. AREAL FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT OTHER THAN SOME MINOR LOCAL IMPACTS UNDER THE HEAVIEST
RAIN. RIVERS ARE HANDLING THE RAIN QUITE WELL AT THE MOMENT... AS
THE SOIL HAS HAD TIME TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE RIVERS/CREEKS
NEAR JACKSON... HOLT... AND EAGLE ARE EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST
RISES BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO
STABILIZE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ


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