000
FXUS63 KGRR 221659
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM AND WILL BRING
COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
WEEKEND. WE LIKELY WON/T BE SEEING 70 DEGREE WEATHER UNTIL NEXT
MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY.

SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SAGINAW BAY TO NEAR HOLLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE.
IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO NW LWR AND THIS CLEARING
WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A PLAINS LOW BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL HAVE
PRETTY GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH IT AND CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY. HOWEVER I THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO WE KEPT TSRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THU NIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT SUPPORTS A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS.  WILL
BUMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  I DID KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER FOR PART OF MY SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.  A
NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SEEN ON THE  HIGH RES
EURO...BUT OVERALL THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW.

WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRI...THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL THE SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
POINT...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR...AS STRONGER
WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE IN FOR FRI NIGHT.  I DID FEATURE
POPS INTO THE NIGHT FOR THIS REASON.  OVERALL THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
LOOKS HIGHER ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LOW.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL DRY OUT SAT AND INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN.  COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.  MODELS DO VARY ON WHETHER WE WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATER SUN INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT TRIES
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERALL I AM LEANING TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS.  THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY LEADING TO A DRY EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW HERE IN SOUTHWEST MI.  TYPICALLY THIS YIELDS COOL DRY
WEATHER.  WILL LOWER POPS FROM MODEL FORECASTS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NNW WINDS TOMORROW MORNING AOB 10 KTS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SCOTTVILLE...CROTON AND EVART. CURRENT
DOWNWARD TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SCOTTVILLE WILL DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CROTON AND EVART MAY LAST
ANOTHER FEW DAYS PENDING RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TOTALS LOOK DECENT...AROUND ONE HALF AN INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH COULD SLOW RECENT PROGRESS ON
THE RIVERS IF WE REACH THE HIGHER END. GIVEN THE TIME ALLOTTED FOR
RIVERS TO RECEDE THIS NEXT EVENT MAY JUST BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE WEEK PANS OUT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM