000
FXUS63 KGRR 200338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1138 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LUDINGTON TO CLARE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREAWIDE WILL COME ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA OVER THE NW CWFA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY AND IN THE SE CWFA AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. WILL CARRY A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND THE RAIN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONVINCING EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ADD THUNDER TO
THE FCST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SFC DEWPTS STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG IS INDICATED. STILL SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER FCSTS.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY AS WELL BEFORE FROPA DUE TO AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25
PCT AND PRE GREEN UP CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE FORECAST IS
MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKING TOO STABLE TO
INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
DECENT LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY... SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. THERE SHOULD BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY... AS THE LOW MEANDERS BY
JUST TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND RISE TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND NORMAL
LOWS ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 500 FT TO
1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
SEEMS THE SHEAR IS NOT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT LLWS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SKIES STAY CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER...
OTHERWISE MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES. LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MECOSTA...NEWAYGO...AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. WITH A RECEDING TREND...THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS
AND LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CHANGE THE FALLING RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING